Mumbai, March 1, 2026, 12:03 IST — Market closed
- Crude oil and headlines out of the Middle East are set to drive Indian risk assets as traders move into Monday.
- Nifty wrapped up Friday at 25,178.65. The IT sector? Its ugliest monthly drop since the 2008 crisis.
- The week will be trimmed by a Holi break on March 3, with eyes also on PMI readings and U.S. jobs numbers.
Indian shares face a holiday-shortened week, heavily influenced by crude moves as U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran spark shipping threats in the Strait of Hormuz. The National Stock Exchange of India resumes trading Monday, following a weekend closure.
In Mumbai, traders draw a straight line: India imports a lot of crude, so any spike in oil prices squeezes margins, stirs up inflation worries, and puts the rupee on the back foot. With equities already skittish, that’s rarely a welcome scenario.
The Nifty 50 dropped 1.25% Friday, settling at 25,178.65. Sensex lost 1.17%, closing at 81,287.19. That marks three consecutive months in the red for both indexes. Nifty shed 0.6% in February, but the Nifty IT index suffered a sharper blow, plunging 19.5% for its steepest monthly loss since September 2008. Investor concerns around artificial intelligence cutting into company earnings weighed heavily. “There is now a cloud of uncertainty hanging over the profitability and margin outlook for Indian IT companies,” said Saurabh Jain, assistant vice president of retail equities at SMC Global. Reuters
Oil’s the variable that can upend those domestic stories in just one trading day. “Oil prices will rise sharply when markets open,” wrote analysts at Eurasia Group. Barclays went further, cautioning Brent “could hit $100” as traders weigh supply risks linked to Hormuz. Reuters
OPEC+—that’s the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and partners like Russia—meets later Sunday, with two sources familiar with the talks telling Reuters the group might look at bumping up April’s output by 411,000 barrels per day, above earlier expectations. On Friday, oil touched $73 a barrel, marking its highest price since July, according to the report.
India’s economy expanded 7.8% in the October-December stretch, according to the revised GDP numbers, Reuters reported Friday. That’s down from 8.4% in the previous quarter, but the pace still tops other major economies. “Service sector performance signals a strong lift, besides double-digit growth in manufacturing,” DBS Bank economist Radhika Rao said. ICRA’s chief economist Aditi Nayar added that the central bank will probably hold rates steady, even if inflation ticks up for a while. Reuters
Heat risks are grabbing more attention as March kicks off. IMD director-general Mrutyunjay Mohapatra flagged on Saturday that India faces a hotter-than-usual summer, warning, “above-normal heatwave days are expected over most parts of the country during March to May 2026.” That sets up the potential for traders to rethink food and power-demand exposures as temperatures begin to climb. Reuters
Earlier this year, positioning was more lopsided. Now, things look more balanced. In February, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs), who put money into Indian capital markets from abroad, picked up equities worth 22,615 crore rupees on a net basis, according to NSDL data. That’s a turnaround after seeing net outflows in January.
The rupee picked up around 1% in February—its first monthly gain since April 2025—closing out Friday at 90.9750 per dollar, according to Reuters. That small buffer may help as March begins, though it wouldn’t shield the currency if oil prices suddenly jump.
This week’s trading is fragmented—the NSE will be closed on Tuesday, March 3, for Holi, the exchange’s holiday calendar shows.
Investors keep an eye on purchasing managers’ index (PMI) reports, those growth barometers for business activity, with manufacturing PMI set for release on the month’s first working day and services following on the third. Global risk sentiment could get its next cue from the U.S. jobs data: the Bureau of Labor Statistics is slated to publish February’s employment numbers Friday, March 6, 8:30 a.m. ET.
The biggest straightforward risk for Indian stocks remains unchanged: any prolonged trouble near Hormuz that drives fuel prices up fast. That scenario would likely trigger a reassessment on rates, the rupee, and corporate earnings—hitting all three fronts together.
The initial hurdle hits premarket: traders are set to dissect the OPEC+ move and whatever oil does over the weekend before Monday’s bell. Focus then pivots fast—Tuesday brings the Holi break, and Friday’s U.S. jobs data stands as the next big trigger.
