Mumbai, March 1, 2026, 12:03 IST — Market closed
- Traders head into Monday with crude oil and Middle East headlines as the main swing factor for Indian risk assets
- Nifty ended Friday at 25,178.65, while the IT sector logged its worst month since the 2008 crisis
- A Holi holiday on March 3 shortens the week; investors also track PMI surveys and U.S. jobs data
Indian stocks head into a holiday-shortened week with crude oil in the driver’s seat, after U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran triggered threats to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The National Stock Exchange of India reopens on Monday after a weekend shut. 1
For traders in Mumbai, the link is straightforward. India is a major crude importer, and a jump in oil prices can hit margins, lift inflation expectations and pressure the rupee — usually a poor mix for equities when the tape is already twitchy.
The Nifty 50 fell 1.25% on Friday to close at 25,178.65, while the Sensex dropped 1.17% to 81,287.19. The benchmarks posted their third straight monthly decline, with the Nifty down 0.6% in February; the Nifty IT index tumbled 19.5% for its worst month since September 2008, as investors worried artificial intelligence could erode earnings. “There is now a cloud of uncertainty hanging over the profitability and margin outlook for Indian IT companies,” said Saurabh Jain, assistant vice president of retail equities at SMC Global. 2
Oil is the wild card that can override those domestic narratives in a single session. “Oil prices will rise sharply when markets open,” Eurasia Group analysts said, while Barclays warned Brent “could hit $100” as the market prices supply risk tied to Hormuz. 3
OPEC+, which groups the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia, meets later on Sunday and may consider a larger-than-planned output increase of 411,000 barrels per day for April, two sources close to the talks told Reuters. Oil hit $73 a barrel on Friday, the highest level since July, the report said. 4
On the domestic macro front, India’s economy grew 7.8% in the October-December quarter under a revamped GDP series, slowing from 8.4% in the prior quarter but still leading major economies, Reuters reported on Friday. “Service sector performance signals a strong lift, besides double-digit growth in manufacturing,” said Radhika Rao, an economist at DBS Bank, while ICRA chief economist Aditi Nayar said the central bank is likely to keep rates on hold even as inflation may rise temporarily. 5
Heat is another macro risk creeping into the conversation as March starts. India is set for a hotter-than-normal summer, and “above-normal heatwave days are expected over most parts of the country during March to May 2026,” IMD director-general Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said on Saturday, raising the odds that traders reprice food and power-demand risks as the season builds. 6
Positioning looks less one-way than earlier in the year. Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) — overseas investors in Indian capital markets — net bought 22,615 crore rupees’ worth of equities in February, NSDL data showed, after net outflows in January. 7
The rupee enters March with a small cushion, but it will not be immune if oil spikes. The currency strengthened about 1% in February for its first monthly rise since April 2025, and ended Friday at 90.9750 per dollar, Reuters reported. 8
The trading week itself is chopped up. The NSE is shut on Tuesday, March 3, for Holi, according to the exchange’s holiday calendar. 9
On the data docket, investors track purchasing managers’ index (PMI) surveys — business-activity gauges watched for growth momentum — with the manufacturing PMI due on the first working day of the month and services on the third. Global risk appetite may also hinge on the U.S. employment report: the Bureau of Labor Statistics schedule shows the February jobs release on Friday, March 6, at 8:30 a.m. ET. 10
But the cleanest risk for Indian equities is still the one that sets the opening tone: a sustained disruption around Hormuz that pushes fuel costs sharply higher and forces a rethink on rates, the rupee and earnings, all at once.
The first test comes before the bell. Traders will parse the OPEC+ decision and any weekend oil reaction ahead of Monday’s open, then move quickly to Tuesday’s Holi break and Friday’s U.S. jobs print for the next clear catalyst.
