Buenos Aires, March 1, 2026, 06:28 (GMT-3) — The market has closed.
- The S&P Merval dropped 4.08% Friday, capping off February with a 17.42% loss.
- Milei’s labor overhaul passed the Senate. A separate push to revise glacier protections also moved ahead, leaving political risk firmly in the price.
- Into Monday’s open, YPF’s guidance looms large, along with shifts in global risk appetite—those are the key swing factors.
The S&P Merval in Buenos Aires slumped 4.08% Friday, closing February at 2,642,105.50—down 17.42% for the month. Still, the index keeps a 19.78% gain over the last year, though the sharp February drop has traders questioning the market’s stability. 1
Sunday’s a market holiday. Come Monday, investors face a new political victory for President Javier Milei, but also weaker corporate cues and a tougher mood worldwide.
The S&P Merval, Argentina’s top equity benchmark, follows the largest and most actively traded local stocks on the Bolsas y Mercados Argentinos exchange. Right now, policy headlines are setting the pace, and as March kicks off, the index isn’t leaving nearly as much room for the unexpected as it did just a month back. 2
Argentina’s Senate gave the green light to Milei’s labor overhaul on Friday, officially making it law. The measure cleared the chamber 42-28, with two senators abstaining, according to Reuters. Among the provisions: a new severance fund paid by employers, added flexibility for hiring, the option for longer workdays, and permission for wages to be paid in foreign currency. Unions argue these provisions chip away at worker protections and curb the right to strike. 3
The Senate advanced Milei’s glacier-law reform with another vote this week, a move hailed by the government as key to opening the door for mining investment. The proposal sparked opposition from environmental advocates. “It’s a game changer,” said Tomas Lanardonne, attorney at MHR. But Agostina Rossi Serra from Greenpeace Argentina flagged water concerns. 4
Headlines out of YPF grabbed attention. CEO Horacio Marin told investors the state-backed oil producer is targeting 2026 EBITDA somewhere between $5.8 billion and $6.2 billion, Reuters reported. Planned investment for that period comes in at $5.5 billion to $5.8 billion, with about 70% funneled into shale. “My personal goal is at the end of the year not to have any production of conventional,” Marin said. 5
Beyond Argentina, sentiment soured late this week as global stocks retreated and oil climbed, geopolitical jitters adding pressure to emerging markets and the energy sector. “It’s time for a breather,” said Talley Leger, chief market strategist at The Wealth Consulting Group, speaking to Reuters. 6
But the week hasn’t moved in a single direction. Labor reform, already a flashpoint, has sparked protests and might fuel further strikes or even courtroom battles. The glacier bill is still waiting on a lower-house vote, with fierce pushback gathering steam. Should global equity jitters worsen, any market gains linked to reform hopes could vanish just as fast.
Traders face a straightforward call here—will Monday see buyers step in after February’s slide, or does sentiment stay too weak for that? Flows might end up just as critical as whatever the headlines deliver.
The next obvious hurdle is on the data calendar. Argentina’s INDEC statistics agency plans to release January industrial production and construction activity figures on Friday, March 6. Depending on how those numbers land, bulls may get more fuel for the recovery story—or sellers could find new ammunition.
