New York, March 2, 2026, 13:45 EST — Regular session
- NYMEX heating oil (ULSD) surged close to 14%, with traders quickly factoring in renewed supply threats out of the Middle East.
- Diesel topped crude as refiners and shippers drew attention following disruptions near the Strait of Hormuz.
- Conflict news remains in focus for traders, who are also eyeing Wednesday’s U.S. fuel inventory data.
Heating oil futures on NYMEX soared to their highest level in two years Monday, as traders piled in following fresh Middle East strikes and counterstrikes that tangled up shipments in the Strait of Hormuz. The front-month contract for NY Harbor ULSD jumped nearly 14%, or about 36 cents, to $2.9561 per gallon, according to CME data.
ULSD sets the pace for diesel and heating oil—the backbone for trucks, factories, and home heating. When prices jump, shipping rates and, in some places, heating costs can climb rapidly. Right now, markets are left guessing: will this shock last days or weeks?
There’s less wiggle room with refined products; quick substitutes just aren’t there the way they can be for crude. When tankers get stuck, exporters hit a wall and importers are left scrambling—even when crude production hasn’t slowed down.
Refined products surged as crude prices shot higher. Brent climbed $4.92, or 6.75%, to $77.79 a barrel. U.S. WTI added $3.87, a 5.77% gain, settling at $70.89.
A broader conflict tied to Iran rattled the region, knocking out facilities and upending shipping routes. Roughly 150 ships ended up stuck outside the strait as companies steered clear of the Gulf. Reuters counted at least three vessels hit in the chaos.
Kenny Zhu, research analyst at Global X, wrote that “while we do not know where these disruptions will end,” the immediate effect is probably “heightened volatility” in energy markets. Reuters
Elsewhere, the diesel strength wasn’t isolated. Argus noted Europe’s front-month gasoil premium over front-month Brent jumped, holding at higher levels through midday.
Traders faced another twist from supply moves. On Sunday, OPEC+ approved a 206,000 barrel-per-day production hike for April, while attention stayed locked on short-term logistics and security threats.
Offsetting factors remain, which spells risk for anyone buying in late. Analysts point out the world market was fairly well stocked before the shock. If problems persist, some buyers might dip into strategic reserves.
Now, attention shifts to headlines from the Gulf, with shipping updates and refinery activity in focus. All eyes on Wednesday, March 4: that’s when the weekly U.S. petroleum status lands, a key read on whether distillate stocks are drawing down as prices jump.
