New York, March 2, 2026, 13:45 EST — Regular session
- NYMEX heating oil (ULSD) jumped nearly 14% as traders priced fresh supply risk in the Middle East.
- Diesel outperformed crude, with refiners and shippers in focus after disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz.
- Traders are watching conflict headlines and Wednesday’s U.S. fuel inventory report.
NYMEX heating oil futures hit a two-year high on Monday, riding a sharp risk bid after Middle East strikes and retaliation snarled shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Front-month NY Harbor ultra-low-sulfur diesel (ULSD) was last up about 36 cents, or nearly 14%, at $2.9561 a gallon, CME data showed. 1
The move matters because ULSD is the benchmark for diesel and heating oil, a workhorse fuel for trucking, industry and home heat. A spike here tends to feed quickly into freight costs and, in some regions, retail heating bills, just as markets are trying to gauge whether the shock is days or weeks.
It also matters because refined products have fewer easy substitutes than crude in the short run. If tankers cannot move, exporters back up fast and importers scramble, even if crude production is still running.
The refined-products rally came alongside a jump in crude. Brent was up $4.92, or 6.75%, at $77.79 a barrel, while U.S. WTI gained $3.87, or 5.77%, to $70.89. 2
The trigger was a widening conflict involving Iran that disrupted facilities and shipping lanes. About 150 ships were reported stranded near the strait as operators avoided entering the Gulf, and at least three vessels were struck, according to a Reuters analysis. 3
“While we do not know where these disruptions will end,” Kenny Zhu, a research analyst at Global X, wrote, adding the near-term result was likely “heightened volatility” in energy markets. 2
Diesel’s outperformance showed up in other markets too. In Europe, front-month gasoil’s premium to front-month Brent widened sharply and was still elevated by midday, Argus reported. 4
Supply policy added a second layer for traders. OPEC+ agreed on Sunday to raise oil output by 206,000 barrels per day in April, even as the market focused on near-term logistics and security risks. 2
There are offsets, and that is the risk for late buyers. Analysts have noted the global market had been relatively well supplied heading into the shock, and some consumers could tap strategic reserves if disruptions drag on. 2
Next up is the flow of headlines out of the Gulf — especially shipping and refinery operations — and the weekly U.S. petroleum status report on Wednesday, March 4, which will show whether distillate inventories are tightening into the price spike. 5
