SYDNEY, March 5, 2026, 17:34 (AEDT)
Qantas Airways Limited (QAN.AX) on Thursday announced it’s waiving change fees, offering travel credits, or refunds for customers with Qantas-issued tickets scheduled between Feb. 28 and March 15 for flights involving the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Israel, Jordan, or Oman. According to the airline, travelers can rebook as far out as March 27 under this arrangement. 1
Airlines rushed to patch up flight networks after U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran closed large sections of the region’s airspace, sending ticket prices soaring on routes like Australia to Europe. Qantas finished the day up 1%, Cathay Pacific jumped 4%. Flightradar24 showed a handful of Emirates planes departing Dubai for places such as Sydney, but the majority of flights stayed grounded. “For now, I consider this rebound to be primarily short-term in nature,” said Kenny Ng, securities strategist at China Everbright Securities International. Natixis economist Gary Ng noted Asian carriers are “highly sensitive” because both routes and energy costs feed directly into revenue and expenses. 2
Qantas has tacked on a one-off A380 Sydney-to-London flight for 485 passengers this Saturday, and is squeezing in a refuelling stop in Singapore on its usually nonstop Perth-to-London route. The move lets Qantas fit in an extra 60 travelers, all to meet a surge in demand, according to Reuters. Still, industry analysts don’t expect service to snap back even with a ceasefire—repositioning jets, shuffling crews, and rebuilding routes all take time. Qantas shares dropped 2.7% Wednesday, deepening its weekly slide to over 10%. 3
Oil jumped, with Brent crude climbing past $83 a barrel on Tuesday, piling more costs onto airlines’ fuel budgets. Qantas CEO Vanessa Hudson described the carrier’s fuel hedging as “pretty good” — a reference to contracts that secure future prices — though she acknowledged the recent spike is biting across the sector. Qantas last week reported 81% of its second-half fuel needs hedged for the financial year through June 30. Singapore Airlines and Cathay Pacific also have hedging strategies in place. 4
Qantas delivered a 5% bump in underlying profit before tax, reaching A$1.46 billion for the half-year ended Dec. 31. Shares promptly tumbled 10% as the airline’s international arm saw profits shrink, pressured by mounting costs and softer demand for economy seats on U.S. routes, according to Reuters last week. “The Australian dollar does affect purchase decisions when it comes to travel,” Hudson said to reporters. 5
Yet hedges expire, and changing routes uses up extra fuel. Should the airspace crunch persist, Qantas may see rising expenses and weaker demand—leaving the airline with limited options for its long-haul network.
Customers get a shot at rescheduling trips with the waiver, sidestepping the risk of abrupt cancellations. Still, the offer only applies to tickets issued within a certain range and a short window for travel. Miss those dates, and regular policies kick back in.
Investors are zeroed in on two things: just how long jet fuel prices stay elevated, and if Qantas manages to keep Europe routes packed even as it adds extra stops and capacity to work through the backlog.
Now comes the clean-up: stranded passengers to move, schedules to rebuild, a close watch on fuel. The market is left to figure out whether this week’s bounce actually sticks or just marks a breather.
