WASHINGTON, March 10, 2026, 14:20 EDT
U.S. mortgage rates hovered near 6% on Tuesday, despite a key consumer indicator ticking upward as the spring housing market picked up momentum. Bankrate’s national average for a 30-year fixed mortgage climbed to 6.21% from last week’s 6.07%, but Mortgage News Daily’s lender survey slipped to 6.09% after reading 6.14% on Monday. 1
The divide is relevant now, as even modest changes in mortgage rates are nudging buyers off the sidelines. Existing home sales edged up 1.7% in February to a 4.09 million annualized rate—surprising analysts—while first-time buyers accounted for 34% of transactions. Affordability conditions also saw some improvement from last year, according to the National Association of Realtors and Reuters. 2
Freddie Mac’s latest weekly survey pegged the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.00% on March 5, barely changed from 5.98% the previous week. “Hovering near their lowest level since 2022,” was how chief economist Sam Khater described it, noting a pickup in both refinance and purchase demand against last year’s pace. 3
Mortgage costs have been moving alongside bonds. U.S. mortgage rates usually follow the 10-year Treasury yield, which slipped to 4.102% after touching 4.216%. Oil prices, which had jumped Monday on war concerns, pulled back—Brent crude dropped 12.6% to $86.50 a barrel in afternoon trading. 4
Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily noted Monday that oil continued to push rates higher, though as oil and bonds moved the other way, lenders were able to bring quotes down a bit. His survey’s 6.09% figure on Tuesday pointed to some of that pressure letting up. 5
Next up: another test looms. The latest U.S. jobs report landed Friday, with payrolls shrinking by 92,000 in February and unemployment ticking up to 4.4%. Still, Mike Fratantoni, chief economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association, doesn’t see the FOMC moving to cut rates soon—he points to increased inflation risks. Eyes will shift to the February CPI numbers, out Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. ET. 6
“Housing affordability is improving, and consumers are responding,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist at NAR. Still, he cautioned, a full rebound to pre-pandemic sales remains distant. According to Reuters, February’s increase probably traces back to contracts inked in December and January, a period when mortgage rates were easing. 7
But affordability hurdles haven’t gone away. “Significant limitation,” is how Charlie Dougherty, senior economist at Wells Fargo, puts it. Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, echoed the concern, pointing to the affordability crunch hitting buyers and the shortage of starter homes in the U.S. 2
There’s a straightforward risk here: a spike in energy costs could push Treasury yields higher, nudging mortgage rates up right as the spring housing market heats up. If February’s 1.29 million-home inventory—which remains beneath pre-pandemic norms—doesn’t climb, prices might stiffen even if rates hover close to 6%. 2
Some lenders are easing up at the edges, but it’s hardly universal. Mortgage credit availability edged up 1.1% to 107.1 in February, the MBA reported, with most of the lift coming from conventional and jumbo loan offerings. Meanwhile, government-backed credit tightened as lenders grew more wary of delinquency risk. 8
