London, April 30, 2026, 15:01 BST
GSK shares edged higher in London on Thursday, a day after a first-quarter profit beat failed to calm doubts over how much of the uplift can last. The stock traded at 1,938 pence at 2:51 p.m. BST, up 1.04%, after closing 5.42% lower on Wednesday.
The quarter matters because it is an early market test for CEO Luke Miels, who is trying to prove GSK can hit more than £40 billion in sales by 2031 while managing the 2028 patent expiry of dolutegravir, a key HIV medicine. Reuters reported that investors questioned whether the earnings beat was boosted by one-off factors.
GSK did not raise its 2026 outlook. The company kept guidance for turnover growth of 3% to 5% and core operating profit growth of 7% to 9% at constant exchange rates, which strip out currency swings.
The company reported first-quarter turnover of £7.63 billion, up 5% at constant exchange rates. Core operating profit rose 10% to £2.65 billion and core earnings per share, a profit measure excluding certain items, rose 9% to 46.5 pence.
Specialty medicines, including HIV and cancer drugs, rose 14% to £3.2 billion. Vaccines rose 4% to £2.1 billion, led by a 20% jump in Shingrix, its shingles vaccine, to £1.0 billion; General Medicines fell 6% to £2.3 billion.
The issue is that Shingrix did a lot of the work. Reuters reported Shingrix sales of £1.03 billion beat expectations of £851 million, helped by stronger European demand and a new pre-filled U.S. format, while Barclays estimated stock-building added about £100 million.
James Eugene, research analyst at Verso Investment Management, said the share fall reflected “quality concerns” about an earnings beat driven by one-off factors. He also pointed to weaker trends in General Medicines and said the beat was “likely more modest than the numbers suggest.” Reuters
Miels pushed attention back to research and development. “GSK has made a strong start to 2026,” he said in the company’s release, citing regulatory filings for bepirovirsen, a potential hepatitis B treatment, updated late-stage cancer drug plans and recent pipeline acquisitions. GSK
GSK said bepirovirsen filings had been accepted in the United States, Europe, China and Japan. It also listed expected 2026 readouts in chronic cough, rectal cancer, HIV prevention and Exdensur for EGPA, a rare inflammatory disease affecting small blood vessels.
Miels said GSK had reviewed more than 50 late-stage programmes and plans to outline a shortlist in the second quarter. “We’re employing AI to accelerate this,” he said, as the company targets 10 late-stage trials this year, including five for a targeted cancer therapy licensed from China’s Hansoh Pharma. Reuters
The competitive readout is not happening in isolation. UK-listed peer AstraZeneca also reported first-quarter results this week, saying revenue rose 8% at constant exchange rates to $15.29 billion and reaffirming its full-year guidance, keeping the sector focus on pipeline delivery rather than headline beats alone.
The risk for GSK is that the strongest first-quarter drivers fade before new products fill the gap. Shingrix stocking can reverse, Arexvy sales fell 18%, General Medicines remains under pressure, and analysts cited by Reuters expect about £35 billion of GSK sales in 2031, below the company’s target of more than £40 billion.
For now, the market has not rejected the Miels plan. It is asking for harder proof, and the next test will be whether the promised second-quarter pipeline update makes the 2031 sales target look less stretched.
