HOUSTON, March 10, 2026, 15:36 CDT
ConocoPhillips slid 2.5% to $114.16 on Tuesday as crude prices plunged, erasing gains built up during the recent war-fueled surge in oil stocks. Exxon Mobil gave up 1.5%, Chevron dropped 1.7%. Brent and U.S. crude, meanwhile, both closed more than 11% lower—marking their sharpest single-day percentage drop since 2022. 1
This one hits ConocoPhillips where it’s most vulnerable. The company sticks to just pumping — no refining, no downstream cushion — which means bigger swings when oil prices wobble. In the fourth quarter, realized prices dropped 19% year-on-year. Even with more output, profit still lagged behind Wall Street’s expectations. According to RBC Capital Markets analyst Scott Hanold, investors remain focused on when the promised free-cash-flow boost will show up — that’s the cash left after project spending — and what management plans to do with it in terms of returns. 2
It’s been a whiplash for oil prices. Brent leapt 29% at one point Monday—marking a peak not seen since mid-2022—after the Iran war rattled supply nerves. But prices later reversed, pressured by a Trump-Putin phone call and chatter in Washington about softening Russian oil sanctions to steady the market. 3
The rebound was rippling through markets by Tuesday. Wall Street closed with uneven results—optimism about a faster resolution to the conflict ran into fresh warnings tied to the Strait of Hormuz. Paul Nolte from Murphy & Sylvest warned that oil’s “parabolic move” could unwind just as sharply when headlines shift. 4
Management’s working to shield investors from price swings. CEO Ryan Lance says ConocoPhillips is “focused on driving a $1 billion reduction” in capital and expenses this year and returning 45% of operating cash straight to shareholders. Production guidance for 2026 is unchanged: 2.33 million to 2.36 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, tallying both oil and gas. 5
ConocoPhillips hasn’t finished paring down its holdings. Bloomberg News said last month the company is weighing a roughly $2 billion sale of Permian Basin assets, following word that it already wrapped up $3.2 billion in asset sales for 2025 and is sticking to its $5 billion asset-sale goal by the end of 2026. 6
Oil’s longer-term direction remains uncertain. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, once Hormuz shipments pick back up, global supply will likely exceed demand again. That could drag Brent crude down to an average of roughly $70 a barrel in the fourth quarter, after averaging close to $91 in the second. 7
That route isn’t guaranteed to hold. Wood Mackenzie warns an extended Gulf shutdown is taking roughly 15 million barrels a day off the market, with Brent possibly spiking to $150. It’s a clear signal: ConocoPhillips remains just as exposed to geopolitics as to its internal cost discipline. 8
