NEW YORK, March 11, 2026, 13:58 EDT
Mortgage rates in the U.S. stuck close to 6.2% on Wednesday, according to Mortgage News Daily’s gauge, which pegged the 30-year fixed at 6.19%. The 10-year Treasury yield sat at roughly 4.21%. Borrowing costs clung to the higher end—just shy of breaking below the 6% mark. 1
Spring typically marks the housing market’s busiest period, and signs of easing borrowing costs had begun to draw buyers in again. In February, existing-home sales climbed 1.7%, hitting a 4.09 million annual rate. First-time buyers grabbed their largest slice of the market in five years. Still, affordability is “a significant limitation,” said Charlie Dougherty, senior economist at Wells Fargo. 2
New mortgage figures painted a similar picture but with a wrinkle. The Mortgage Bankers Association reported a 3.2% increase in total applications for the week. Purchase applications jumped 7.8%. Its survey also showed the average rate on 30-year fixed loans ticking up to 6.19% from 6.09%. According to chief economist Mike Fratantoni, borrowers had managed to lock in sub-6% rates recently, but renewed market swings nudged those higher again. 3
Mortgage rates usually track movements in the 10-year Treasury yield more than shifts in the Fed’s main rate. After Wednesday’s CPI numbers, the 10-year note pushed up 7 basis points to 4.21%. Consumer prices climbed 0.3% in February from January and were up 2.4% year-over-year—right on target with forecasts. 4
Usually, that kind of inflation number would be good news. Right now, though, Ellen Zentner, chief economic strategist at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, thinks it doesn’t have as much sway, with the market’s attention pulled toward geopolitical risks and climbing oil prices. According to Mortgage News Daily, CPI faces a “very high bar” to shift the mortgage market, since traders are already using oil prices as a proxy for where inflation might be headed. 5
The index remains just shy of 6%. According to Freddie Mac’s weekly survey, the average rate for a 30-year mortgage landed at 6.00% on March 5, edging up from last week’s 5.98%. That puts rates barely over the 6% mark. 6
But any respite might not last. A Reuters poll out Wednesday had bond strategists eyeing the 10-year yield at 4.20% six months out, ticking up to 4.25% over a year. Robert Tipp at PGIM Fixed Income warned investors could be “too optimistic” on Fed rate cut prospects if inflation proves stubborn. 7
Jeff DerGurahian, loanDepot’s chief investment officer and head economist, told Bankrate that absent all the geopolitical friction, mortgage rates would probably be sitting in the “high 5s.” That’s not where things stand right now. 8
