SYDNEY, March 14, 2026, 09:42 AEDT
National Australia Bank jumped 1.53% Friday, settling at A$47.11, as traders looked ahead to a possible Reserve Bank of Australia rate hike next week. Commonwealth Bank closed up 1.26%, finishing at A$173.76, while Westpac advanced 1.11% to A$40.99, according to Reuters market data. 1
This shift has teeth, with rate expectations jolting in short order. A fresh spike in oil prices has steered Australian investors toward bets on rates staying elevated, fueling the higher-for-longer trade. That tends to play well for banks: wider net interest margins—what they pocket on loans after covering funding—assuming credit quality doesn’t slip. 2
Friday brought a tougher macro scene. Australia moved to draw as much as 762 million litres of petrol and diesel from its emergency reserves, aiming to relieve shortages linked to the Iran war. Brent crude changed hands at $100.13 a barrel, Goldman Sachs noted, with the bank now expecting prices over $100 on average for March. 3
AMP chief economist Dr Shane Oliver said Friday he now expects the RBA to hike rates on Tuesday, pointing to petrol prices that could push inflation up by about 1 percentage point to roughly 5%. According to AMP, the RBA’s March 17 decision, upcoming jobs figures, and the central bank’s Financial Stability Review next week make up the key catalysts for Australian markets. 2
The rate move follows NAB’s robust earnings update from last month. First-quarter cash earnings came in at A$2.02 billion, climbing 16% year-on-year. Business banking volumes added 7%, while housing loan growth reached 5%. Shares briefly touched a record A$47.96 after the numbers landed. 4
NAB’s net interest margin ticked up to 1.80% for the quarter, a lift in this crucial lending metric despite ongoing, heated rivalry with Commonwealth Bank and Westpac. 4
Some softer numbers showed up. NAB’s common equity tier 1 ratio, that capital buffer investors track, edged down to 11.48%. It had been 11.6% a year ago. Citi analysts flagged that the capital picture might still weigh on the stock, even with the solid headline result. 4
NAB’s Chief Executive Andrew Irvine had said the bank was “well placed” to back customers and keep growth steady. That’s being put to the test now, as investors weigh his comments against mounting pressure on households and businesses with fuel costs still elevated. 4
For NAB shareholders, the supposed margin boost could easily flip into a credit headache. Major Australian banks pushed February’s 0.25 percentage point rate hike onto variable-rate home loan customers without delay, and if the RBA hikes again while the oil shock drags on, borrowers could feel even more pressure. 5
The market’s not buying it, at least for now. NAB wrapped up Friday at A$47.11 and ANZ was at A$37.20, per Reuters data. That keeps the spotlight on big-bank moves ahead of the March 17 RBA decision. 1
