LONDON, March 17, 2026, 13:42 GMT
Shell shares rose about 1% in European trade on Tuesday, building on Monday’s move to 3,415 pence, as crude held above $100 a barrel after renewed attacks on the United Arab Emirates revived supply fears. 1
The move matters now because investors are leaning back into Shell’s cash-return story ahead of first-quarter results on May 7. Shell announced a $3.5 billion share buyback programme to repurchase its own stock with February results, and the board on Monday published sterling and euro equivalents for the fourth-quarter dividend already set at $0.372 a share. 2
In London, the FTSE 100 was up 0.6% by late morning and the energy index rose 1.1% to a record high. BP gained more than 1% alongside Shell, a sign the buying was broad across the oil majors rather than tied to one company. 3
Brent traded at $102.78 a barrel and U.S. crude at $96.01. IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said “the risks remain stark,” while Priyanka Sachdeva of Phillip Nova said traders were focused on how long the conflict lasts and the damage it could leave on Gulf infrastructure. 4
Shell also gave investors a company-specific line to work with. On Monday it said global demand for liquefied natural gas, or LNG, which is gas chilled into liquid form for shipping, could rise 54% to 68% by 2040 from 2025 levels, with Asia accounting for 70% of the growth, and said it plans to expand LNG sales by 4% to 5% a year. 5
The company is still buying back stock. A London Stock Exchange filing showed Shell bought shares for cancellation on March 16. 6
There is a catch. Calculations based on company reports show about 11% of Shell’s 2025 oil and gas output came from the Middle East, versus roughly 22% for BP and 34% for TotalEnergies, and Shell also has LNG interests in Qatar and Oman. 7
That leaves the trade exposed if the oil shock fades. Bank of America said a quick reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could pull Brent back toward $70, while Standard Chartered sees a longer tail to the disruption and estimates 7.4 million to 8.2 million barrels a day are offline across the region; Shell’s annual report last week showed 2025 profit fell by more than a fifth to about $18.5 billion, even though the company kept buybacks and dividends in place. 8
