New York, Feb 16, 2026, 16:24 EST — The market is shut for the day.
- Applied Materials ended Friday at $354.91, up 8.1%. The stock moved between $353.26 and $376.32 during the session. 1
- With U.S. stock markets closed for Presidents Day, investors will have to wait until Tuesday for the latest data on chip-equipment demand. 2
- Investors juggle upbeat guidance against a U.S. export-control penalty, with analysts boosting price targets ahead of Nvidia’s results next week.
Applied Materials (AMAT.O) won’t see action on Monday, with U.S. markets shuttered for Presidents Day. Shares wrapped up Friday’s trading 8.1% higher at $354.91, after swinging between $353.26 and $376.32—an unusually broad range, even for chip stocks. 1
Applied’s rally has made the stock a key gauge for whether AI demand is still driving chipmakers to invest in new equipment. The shares surged 11% Friday after the company’s outlook stoked bets on another wave of spending for wafer-fab and packaging gear, with at least 22 brokerages hiking price targets, according to Reuters. “We expect a massive wafer fabrication equipment growth cycle over the next three years,” Morningstar’s William Kerwin said, describing AI infrastructure demand as “immense” while supply remains tight. 3
Applied is forecasting second-quarter revenue around $7.65 billion, give or take $500 million, and adjusted earnings of $2.64 per share, plus or minus 20 cents—both topping Wall Street’s consensus, according to Reuters. The company cited tighter supply in memory chips and more demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM), those DRAM stacks paired with AI processors, as chipmakers ramp up production. “Memory and logic-foundry capex growth are two sides of the same coin,” said Rothschild & Co Redburn analyst Timm Schulze-Melander, who called memory the main growth engine for now. 4
Applied Materials reported first-quarter revenue of $7.01 billion, with adjusted earnings coming in at $2.38 per share. Operating cash flow hit $1.69 billion. The company handed $702 million back to shareholders via dividends and buybacks. CEO Gary Dickerson pointed to AI computing as a growth driver, projecting over 20% growth for the semiconductor equipment segment this year. 5
Short-term gains face a tough hurdle here. The U.S. Commerce Department’s Bureau of Industry and Security said Applied and its Korea branch will shell out about $252 million in penalties for illegally exporting ion implanters—used in chipmaking—to China, having sent the equipment through South Korea without the proper licenses. That $252 million figure is actually the legal maximum, according to BIS. Applied also agreed to outside audits and yearly compliance certifications, and BIS noted employees linked to those shipments are no longer with the company. “When companies export their products around the world, they must follow the law or face stiff penalties,” said BIS under secretary Jeffrey Kessler. 6
Analysts didn’t waste time reacting to the numbers. Needham’s Charles Shi stuck to his “Buy” call and bumped his price target up to $440 from $390, according to GuruFocus. RBC Capital took its target to $430 from $385, dismissing worries about China share losses as “overdone,” a summary of the note showed. Over at Wells Fargo, MarketScreener said the target climbed to $435 from $350, with the “Overweight” rating left in place. 7
Applied is sticking to its messaging around tech advances and partnerships. Just last week, the company announced Samsung Electronics is coming on board at its upcoming $5 billion EPIC Center in Silicon Valley. Applied says the site — expected to go live in spring 2026 — should help accelerate the move from lab work to full chip production by several years. Samsung vice chairman and CEO Young Hyun Jun put it simply: the firms intend to “deepen” their technology collaboration at the facility. 8
The stock’s rally has left nerves exposed. Even a hint of memory spending topping out, or signs that stricter export controls are slowing shipments and service, could challenge the notion that the AI hardware cycle just keeps climbing.
Tuesday’s session puts traders to the test: will the post-earnings strength stick? Attention turns next to Nvidia, set to report Feb. 25 and take questions at 5 p.m. ET — a key moment for anyone watching AI infrastructure demand, which has been rippling through chipmakers and showing up in Applied’s orders too. 9
