London, March 20, 2026, 13:49 GMT
- Shares of Glencore Plc climbed 1.08% to 523.8 pence late Friday morning in London.
- The company’s South African ferrochrome operation warned it might pull out of talks over discounted electricity, putting up to 1,500 jobs on the line if an agreement isn’t reached by March 31.
- Morningstar bumped its fair value estimate for Glencore up 6% to 530 pence this week, citing a brighter earnings outlook thanks to firming thermal coal prices.
Shares of Glencore Plc climbed 1% in London on Friday, shrugging off signals from its South African ferrochrome arm, which threatened to walk away from negotiations for cheaper power. By late morning, the stock was trading at 523.8 pence, marking a 1.08% gain from Thursday’s finish.
This is catching attention as investors keep piling into Glencore’s coal play after a big rerating earlier this year. Since Jan. 7, coal prices and Glencore shares are both up 26%, Reuters reported last week. Morningstar’s Jon Mills just took his fair value estimate for Glencore stock up to 530 pence this week.
Thursday in Johannesburg, Glencore Ferroalloys CEO Japie Fullard flatly rejected Eskom’s latest tariff proposal, saying he couldn’t “be in a position to sign” under the current conditions. The plan would see electricity rates for Glencore and Samancor Chrome—the country’s top two ferrochrome producers—reduced to 0.62 rand per kilowatt hour from the current 1.36 rand. Ferrochrome is essential for making stainless steel. Reuters
Glencore has pushed back potential layoffs to March 31. Still, Fullard warned that as many as 1,500 jobs are on the line if talks fail. South African smelters have been squeezed for years—Reuters pointed out that power costs have shot up tenfold since 2008, slashing the number of running plants from 66 to just 11. Glencore’s statement holds firm: no deal by March 31, and that’s it.
Glencore’s shares outperformed as the FTSE 100 slipped 0.1% at 1039 GMT. Rio Tinto was up 0.41% and BHP tacked on 0.64% in London trading, indicating Glencore’s advance wasn’t just a product of a general market uptick.
Coal helps provide a buffer. On March 19, Mills noted that tensions in the Middle East and the near-shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz point to “much stronger earnings in the second half” for coal miners. After his upgrade, he called Glencore shares “close to fairly valued.” Thermal coal, the kind used by power plants, is at the center of this. Morningstar
Some recent backing has cropped up for the story. In February, Glencore announced a $2 billion payout to shareholders, even as 2025 adjusted EBITDA slipped 6% to $13.51 billion. “Underlying momentum in H2 was clear,” CEO Gary Nagle said, pointing to stronger metals prices and improved copper output. Still, net debt held above the company’s target at $11.2 billion. Reuters
The risk is straightforward. Should South African negotiations break down, the local unit is threatening to abandon the 62-cent tariff agreement and restart the delayed layoffs. Meanwhile, investors in London are still jittery—rising oil prices keep stoking inflation worries and bets on more rate hikes from the Bank of England.
March 31 stands out as the next key date for the stock. That’s when the paused job-cut process could pick up again—assuming no deal on power prices by then.
