SYDNEY, March 22, 2026, 05:20 AEDT
Australian shares ended Friday with a third straight weekly loss, dragged by miners and by fears that higher oil prices will keep borrowing costs high. The S&P/ASX 200 closed at 8,428.40, down 0.82% on the day, about 2.2% below its March 13 close of 8,617.10 and roughly 8.4% under its Feb. 27 close of 9,198.60. 1
That mattered because investors had to absorb a fresh Reserve Bank of Australia hike just as the Middle East conflict hardened the inflation outlook. The RBA lifted its cash rate, its policy rate, to 4.10% in a 5-4 vote, and ASX’s rate tracker showed markets still implied a 57% chance of another rise in May; Belinda Allen at Commonwealth Bank said, “The domestic data flow alone justified a rate hike today.” 2
Treasury gave the selloff more weight on Wednesday. It said oil staying near $100 a barrel through the first half would lift the inflation peak by 0.75 percentage point and shave 0.2% off output, while a more prolonged $120 scenario would leave inflation 1.25 points higher and GDP 0.6% lower around 2027. 3
The damage was uneven. Over the past week, the materials index has fallen 9.01% and information technology 3.47%, while energy has risen 6.15%, financials 1.48% and consumer staples 1.78%; health care is down 5.05%, a sign money moved into oil producers and defensives rather than out of equities altogether. 4
Friday’s tape told the same story in three names. BHP fell 1.82%, Rio Tinto lost 2.93% and Woodside rose 1.01%, according to ASX price data. 5
There was little help from offshore. Global shares fell for a third straight session on Friday and Brent settled at $112.19 a barrel, the highest since July 2022, while bond yields climbed as investors bet central banks may need to stay tighter for longer. 6
Australia’s labour report did not calm the mood. Employment rose 48,900 in February but the jobless rate ticked up to 4.3%; My Bui at AMP called the figures “slightly weaker on the headline measures,” while Harry McAuley of Oxford Economics Australia said the key risk was the “severity and length” of disruption to oil and gas routes in the Middle East. 7
That leaves the market in a narrow lane for next week. If crude stays high, energy can keep cushioning the index, but the broader market still has to deal with dearer fuel, firmer rate bets and weaker appetite for risk. If oil eases, the rate scare softens too — though this week’s shelter trades could unwind quickly.
