SYDNEY, March 23, 2026, 05:04 UTC+11
ANZ Group Holdings closed Friday at A$36.60, down 1.13%, after about A$407.4 million in shares changed hands—still putting the lender near the top of the ASX’s most-traded list by value. Pressure wasn’t limited to ANZ: National Australia Bank dropped 2.25%, Westpac Banking Corp slid 1.05%, and Commonwealth Bank of Australia lost 0.97%. 1
That’s notable, considering ANZ had been one of the sector’s more resilient performers lately. Shares now sit roughly 9% off their A$40.20 all-time high, reached after February’s upbeat first-quarter numbers. Investors appear to be looking past the earlier cost-driven gains and facing the tougher issue: do higher rates ultimately boost margins enough to outweigh the strain on borrowers? 2
ANZ cranked up the pressure on March 17, announcing a 0.25 percentage point hike for Australian variable home loan rates, effective March 27. The decision follows the Reserve Bank of Australia’s latest rate increase. According to ANZ, that translates to an extra A$80 per month for a typical A$500,000 owner-occupier loan. Retail boss Pedro Rodeia acknowledged the hit to household budgets. 3
The Reserve Bank of Australia pushed its cash rate up to 4.1% last week, with the board almost evenly split at 5-4—its closest call since publishing vote counts. Traders already have a move to 4.35% locked in for August. Belinda Allen at Commonwealth Bank pointed to “the domestic data flow alone” as enough for a hike, while Luci Ellis over at Westpac flagged that a follow-up in May “looks less certain.” 4
ANZ’s latest survey paints a bleak picture. The ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence index dropped 4.9 points to 68.5 last week—not seen this low since March 2020. Weekly inflation expectations ticked up to 6.7%. “Households are increasingly pessimistic about the economy and rates,” economist Sophia Angala noted. 5
Bank stocks aren’t behaving like classic beneficiaries of rising rates. AMP chief economist Shane Oliver noted Friday that Australian shares slid another 1.9% this week, weighed down by concerns over “a boost to inflation and a hit to growth” from pricier oil and the prospect of another RBA hike. For households juggling a mortgage and a petrol car, Oliver put the monthly hit to spending power at over A$300. 6
ANZ is still getting a boost from operational performance. In its February update, the bank posted a cash profit of A$1.94 billion, marking a 17% rise from the previous half’s quarterly average, stripping out one-offs. Net interest margin edged up, gaining 0.02 percentage point to reach 1.56%. Chief Executive Nuno Matos described the productivity program as “well underway.” 7
Still, short-term risk keeps tilting negative if oil tacks on more gains. After Brent finished Friday at $112.19 a barrel—its highest close since July 2022—Reuters said Sunday that prices could climb again Monday. IG’s Tony Sycamore described the situation as a “48-hour ticking time bomb” of uncertainty. For banks, that’s yet another hint: the next swing might hinge just as much on global headlines as on their earnings. 8
