NEW YORK, March 24, 2026, 16:06 (EDT).
The relief rally on Wall Street fizzled Tuesday. The Dow managed to hang onto small gains, but the S&P 500 barely budged and the Nasdaq slipped as oil jumped back above $100 a barrel and Treasury yields edged higher amid renewed uncertainty over U.S.-Iran talks. Brent shot up about 4.5% to $104.49 a barrel, with U.S. crude up nearly 4.8% at $92.35. U.S. and European stock futures were already weaker ahead of the New York open.
The sharp move on Monday has the hallmarks of a knee-jerk reaction to headlines rather than a decisive shift upward. Futures are now showing zero rate cuts from the Federal Reserve in 2026. The VIX stayed elevated—around 26 as of Tuesday, notably higher than its historical norm—indicating investors continue to shell out for downside protection.
On Tuesday, energy stocks took the lead in the S&P 500, as communication services and tech names fell behind. Kevin Gordon, who heads macro research and strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research, described the current backdrop—rising oil and higher rates—as a “double whammy” for the equity market. That combination, he said, points to the risk of both slowing growth and rising prices. Reuters
Monday delivered a sharp rebound. The Dow jumped 631 points, or 1.38%. The S&P 500 tacked on 1.15%, with the Nasdaq also up 1.38%. President Donald Trump attributed the move to his decision to call off planned strikes on Iranian power plants after what he called “productive conversations” with Tehran. Iran, for its part, denied any talks. “All about the price of oil” in the near term, said Bob Doll, chief investment officer at Crossmark Global Investments. Reuters
Oil’s now acting as the economy’s main conduit. On Tuesday, Reuters said shipments through the Strait of Hormuz—responsible for roughly 20% of global oil and LNG—have been nearly brought to a standstill by the war. The International Energy Agency is calling this the largest disruption on record.
Fresh U.S. numbers painted a tough picture. S&P Global’s flash Composite PMI—tracking business activity—dropped to 51.4 in March, marking its lowest point since April 2025. Anything over 50 still means growth, but just barely now. Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, described the data as an “unwelcome combination” of slower growth alongside rising inflation. Reuters
Still, U.S. equities have fared better than many global counterparts since the conflict kicked off in late February. The S&P 500 has shed roughly 4% over that period, while Europe’s STOXX 600 dropped 9% and Japan’s Nikkei lost more than 12%. According to strategists from PNC Financial Services Group and Wells Fargo, a heavier concentration in tech and less direct reliance on Gulf oil have cushioned U.S. stocks.
Barclays shrugged off broader worries Tuesday, bumping its S&P 500 year-end forecast to 7,650—up from 7,400. The move comes as the bank puts its chips on robust U.S. growth and strong tech earnings, arguing these positives should eclipse building macro headwinds.
Barclays, though, flagged a rougher scenario too—a bear-case target of 5,900 if elevated oil prices stick around and stoke inflation, putting the Fed in a bind. Private credit showed fresh cracks: after news surfaced that Ares Management and Apollo Global Management moved to curb withdrawals from some funds, shares in Blackstone and Carlyle slid as well.
The market, for the moment, appears stuck in a holding pattern. With crude prices running hot, volatility lingering, and signals on Iran diplomacy coming in uneven, the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq are likely to continue seesawing—one minute finding relief, the next slipping back.
