NEW YORK, March 24, 2026, 16:06 (EDT).
Wall Street’s relief rally lost momentum on Tuesday, with the Dow holding modest gains, the S&P 500 hovering near flat and the Nasdaq under pressure as crude rebounded above $100 a barrel and Treasury yields rose on fresh confusion over U.S.-Iran contacts. Brent climbed about 4.5% to $104.49 a barrel and U.S. crude nearly 4.8% to $92.35, while U.S. and European stock futures had slipped before the New York open. 1
That matters because Monday’s surge now looks more like another headline-driven swing than a clean turn higher. Futures markets now imply no Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, and the VIX, an options-based gauge of expected S&P 500 swings, was still around 26 on Tuesday and well above its long-run average, a sign that investors were still paying up for protection. 2
Energy stocks led the S&P 500 on Tuesday, while communication services and technology lagged. Kevin Gordon, head of macro research and strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research, called the mix of higher oil and higher rates a “double whammy” for equities, a setup that risks slower growth and higher prices at the same time. 1
Monday’s bounce had been forceful. The Dow rose 631 points, or 1.38%, while the S&P 500 gained 1.15% and the Nasdaq 1.38% after President Donald Trump said he had postponed strikes on Iranian power plants following what he described as “productive conversations” with Tehran, but Iran later denied talks and Bob Doll, chief investment officer at Crossmark Global Investments, said the market was “all about the price of oil” in the short term. 3
Oil has become the transmission line for the wider economy. Reuters reported on Tuesday that the war had all but halted shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, the route for about one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas, prompting the International Energy Agency to describe the disruption as the biggest ever. 4
Fresh U.S. data underlined the strain. S&P Global’s flash Composite PMI, a monthly survey of business activity, fell to 51.4 in March, the lowest since April 2025; readings above 50 still signal growth, but only barely. Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, called it an “unwelcome combination” of slower growth and rising inflation. 5
Even so, U.S. stocks have held up better than many overseas peers since the conflict began in late February. The S&P 500 has fallen about 4% over that stretch, compared with a 9% slide in Europe’s STOXX 600 and more than 12% in Japan’s Nikkei, helped by the U.S.’s heavier tech weighting and lower direct exposure to Gulf oil flows, strategists at PNC Financial Services Group and Wells Fargo said. 6
Barclays leaned against the gloom on Tuesday, raising its year-end S&P 500 target to 7,650 from 7,400 as it bet strong corporate earnings, led by technology, and resilient U.S. growth would outweigh rising macro risks. 7
But Barclays also sketched a darker path, with a bear-case target of 5,900 if oil stays high long enough to revive inflation and squeeze the Fed. Another pressure point emerged in private credit, where investment funds lend outside traditional banks, after reports that Ares Management and Apollo Global Management had limited withdrawals from funds; peers Blackstone and Carlyle also traded lower. 7
For now, the market still looks as if it is waiting for the next headline. Until crude cools, volatility eases and the diplomacy around Iran becomes less contradictory, the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq look set to keep swinging between relief and retreat. 8
