NEW YORK, March 24, 2026, 17:06 EDT.
BHP Group’s U.S.-listed shares rose 56 cents to $68.77 on Tuesday as investors weighed signs of stronger Indian demand that could open an outlet for iron ore caught in the miner’s pricing dispute with China. Reuters reported that India’s imports are set to hit a seven-year high and that a rare cargo of BHP’s Jimblebar fines, one of its iron ore products, is headed to the country. 1
The move matters because China Mineral Resources Group, the state-run buyer negotiating BHP’s 2026 supply terms, has progressively restricted purchases of several BHP iron ore products, though it briefly eased one ban earlier this month. India is no substitute for China, but another buyer for restricted cargoes could ease pressure on volumes that have been sold at discounts. 2
India’s iron ore imports, a key raw material in steelmaking, are likely to reach 12 million to 14 million metric tons in the fiscal year ending March 31, more than double a year earlier, analysts and trade officials told Reuters. Lalit Ladkat, a senior analyst at CRU, said JSW Steel was a “key driver” of the demand, while Brazil and Oman still accounted for about 70% of shipments. 1
BHP has reason to care. When it reported half-year results in February, copper overtook iron ore as its biggest earnings source for the first time, but iron ore still contributed $7.5 billion of operating earnings in the six months ended Dec. 31. 3
Copper remains the cleaner growth story across the sector. Rio Tinto said on Tuesday it wants first copper from Arizona’s Resolution project in the early to mid-2030s, with copper chief Katie Jackson saying the company is committed to bringing metal on “as quickly as we can”; BHP owns 45% of the project and Rio holds 55%. 4
Elsewhere in the sector, Rio Tinto’s U.S.-listed shares rose about 1%, while Freeport-McMoRan gained nearly 3%. Freeport Chief Executive Kathleen Quirk said the forces driving copper demand are “more secular in nature” despite the shock from the Iran conflict. 5
Incoming BHP CEO Brandon Craig has said the miner will lean on organic growth in copper, iron ore, potash and coal, and that any acquisition would need to be “incredibly compelling”. He has also said keeping close customer ties, “particularly in China,” will matter as he takes over on July 1. 6
But the trade can fray quickly. Reuters reported last week that much of China’s strong iron ore buying is going into port stockpiles rather than steel output, and Fortescue’s Dino Otranto warned on Monday that “a 10-cent change” in diesel prices costs his company $70 million and implies roughly $500 million of extra cost across the biggest iron ore miners. 7
BHP is due to pay its interim dividend on March 26, a near-term cash marker for shareholders. After that, investors will be watching whether India becomes a repeat outlet for restricted ore, or whether China tightens the screws again before supply talks settle. 8
