LONDON, March 30, 2026, 14:13 BST
Oil climbed again on Monday and Asian shares fell after Yemen’s Houthis attacked Israel and comments cited by the Guardian showed Donald Trump talking about taking Iran’s oil and seizing Kharg Island, Iran’s main export hub. Markets still showed little faith that talks were on track, and Brent crude was headed for its biggest monthly rise in LSEG data back to 1988 as traders kept pricing the Strait of Hormuz as a live supply threat. 1
Why it matters now is that the move has broken out of commodity markets and into daily prices. Germany said March inflation accelerated to 2.8% as energy costs rose, while RAC figures cited by the Guardian showed average UK petrol prices at 152 pence a litre and diesel at 181.2 pence, tightening the squeeze on households and forcing investors to rethink how quickly Europe can cut rates. 2
The next pressure point is refined fuel. Shell chief executive Wael Sawan has warned Europe could start feeling shortages in April, first in jet fuel and then in diesel and gasoline, and EU energy ministers will hold emergency talks on Tuesday to coordinate a response. 3
Markets split by region. Japan’s Nikkei dropped 2.8% and South Korea’s Kospi nearly 3%, while the STOXX 600 rose 0.2% and London’s FTSE 100 added 0.6% on strength in miners and energy shares. The dollar was also set for its biggest monthly gain since July as investors reached for safety. 4
Energy names outperformed, with Shell and TotalEnergies up more than 1%, while airlines including Air France and Lufthansa fell as traders marked up jet-fuel costs. The split showed how quickly expensive crude can lift producers and hit carriers. 5
“Markets are underpricing the prospect” that the fighting will not end quickly, Michael Hewson of iForex said. JP Morgan analysts led by Natasha Kaneva said the war now stretches beyond the Gulf into the Bab el-Mandeb, another narrow shipping route crucial for crude and fuel flows, a sign that supply risk is spreading rather than easing. 5
Bond markets are already pricing a longer inflation fight and a weaker economy. Britain’s two-year bond yield has jumped nearly a full percentage point this month and Germany’s has risen about 0.7 point; Moh Siong Sim of OCBC said the growth hit was becoming “more of a focus”, while Berenberg economist Felix Schmidt said central banks were stuck in a stagflation scenario — weak growth with stubborn inflation. 6
In Britain, Starmer planned talks with energy and finance leaders as ministers weighed emergency measures. British finance minister Rachel Reeves was due to tell G7 counterparts to avoid unilateral trade barriers that could worsen energy insecurity, while EU officials warned against fragmented national responses and urged members to stabilise oil products and refill gas storage early. 1
But the next move is not one-way. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the oil market remained well supplied and that more ships were moving through Hormuz, while the International Energy Agency has already launched a record 400 million-barrel release from emergency stocks. A credible de-escalation or wider reopening of the waterway could cool prices quickly; a direct hit on more Gulf energy sites would do the opposite. 7
The shock is already spilling beyond oil. Aluminium jumped to a four-year high after Iranian strikes on Gulf smelters, with damage reported at Alba and Emirates Global Aluminium, underlining a broader risk for manufacturers: what began as an oil squeeze is turning into a metals, freight and inflation story too. 8
