NEW YORK, April 6, 2026, 14:48 EDT
U.S. natural gas futures edged higher on Monday, snapping four straight declines as a cold spell swept through the Ohio Valley and into the East, lifting near-term heating and power demand. May gas rose to about $2.84 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), the market’s standard price unit, and Dennis Kissler of BOK Financial Securities said “a near-term cold wave is hitting the Ohio valley and moving eastward.” 1
The bounce matters because it does not change the bigger picture much. The front-month, or nearest active, contract is still hovering near its lowest level since August 2025 as mild spring weather curbs demand and lets storage keep building, while U.S. export plants are already running close to full rates. 2
The U.S. Energy Information Administration said working gas in storage rose by 36 billion cubic feet, or bcf, in the week ended March 27. Stocks stood at 1,865 bcf, 96 bcf above a year earlier and 54 bcf above the five-year average, a reminder that the domestic market is not tight heading into spring. 3
That helps explain why the Middle East war has hit U.S. gas differently from oil and overseas gas. In its latest short-term outlook, EIA said reduced liquefied natural gas, or LNG, flows through the Strait of Hormuz had lifted gas prices in Europe and Asia, but U.S. prices should be “relatively unaffected” because milder February weather left more fuel in storage; the agency put its 2026 Henry Hub forecast at about $3.80 per mmBtu. 4
U.S. LNG exporters are still moving flat out. Reuters reported that March shipments rose to a record 11.7 million metric tons, with Europe still the biggest buyer and flows to Asia more than doubling from February, helped by new output from Cheniere and the Golden Pass venture between QatarEnergy and Exxon Mobil. 5
Oil has provided some cross-market support, even if the signal has been messy. Reuters said WTI crude was still above $111 a barrel and Brent near $109 on Monday after last week’s sharp surge, leaving gas traders to weigh whether broader energy stress can offset weak U.S. seasonal demand. 6
Christopher Lewis, an analyst at FXEmpire, said $2.75 looked like the market’s “short-term floor,” while $3 was the level to watch on any rebound. That fits a market still trading more on weather and near-term positioning than on a lasting supply squeeze. 7
But the weather boost could fade quickly. Reuters reported gas rigs rose by three last week to 130, and EIA still expects U.S. gas output to climb to 109.5 billion cubic feet per day this year, suggesting supply can keep growing even with prices under pressure. 8
James Hyerczyk of FXEmpire wrote that strong production, rising storage and weak seasonal demand were still steering the market, with rallies vulnerable unless LNG exports jump further or colder weather lasts longer than expected. For now, Monday’s move looks more like a pause in the slide than a clean turn. 9
