LONDON, April 7, 2026, 12:11 BST
Shell Plc is approaching its Q1 2026 update, scheduled for April 8, with oil prices still hovering close to $110 a barrel—good news for investors eyeing a solid first quarter after recent turbulence in Middle East energy markets. Reuters reported last month that the upcoming note will break down the anticipated financial impact of the conflict. 1
The note’s timing is key—Shell is set to offer investors an early look at how the recent supply shock is working its way through a top-tier oil and gas firm, and the world’s largest LNG trader. Investors are still eyeing Shell’s $3.5 billion buyback and dividend approach, especially after that softer fourth quarter back in February. 2
By 0920 GMT on Tuesday, Brent crude traded at $108.82 a barrel. U.S. crude sat at $112.30, having earlier climbed past $116. The Strait of Hormuz—where about 20% of global oil usually passes—remains closed, leaving refiners and traders wary. 1
On March 26, Reuters noted that three Shell analysts had bumped up their first-quarter net profit forecasts by 15% on average, based on LSEG data. “The first quarter is going to be phenomenal for these companies. I don’t think there’s any way around that,” said Leo Mariani, senior research analyst at Roth Capital Partners, referring to the oil majors. 3
Still, Shell doesn’t offer investors a straightforward play on rising prices. Back in March, Reuters said output halted at Pearl GTL—Shell’s Qatar-based gas-to-liquids plant—after attacks hit the facility. Restoration for train two? Reuters cited estimates it might be about a year before everything’s back online. 4
Shell has cautioned that the impact from the conflict is double-edged for gas markets. “These geopolitical shocks…send the wrong signals to customers around the long-term fundamentals of gas,” said Cedric Cremers, Shell’s integrated gas president, speaking at CERAWeek in Houston last month. 5
Shell isn’t alone in this position. Chevron and Exxon Mobil are also on track for robust quarters as oil prices shot higher, Reuters reported. Still, analysts flagged that firms operating in the Middle East might see some of those gains offset by supply disruptions, repair expenses, or rerouting costs. 3
Shell didn’t come in strong. Fourth-quarter net profit landed at $3.3 billion in February, falling short of what analysts had penciled in, but the company held buybacks steady at $3.5 billion. Payouts to shareholders over the last four quarters hit 52% of operating cash flow—topping Shell’s own target band of 40%-50%. For CFO Sinead Gorman, that range is “sacrosanct.” 6
Traders remain wary. “Investors are positioning carefully rather than fully pricing in a worst-case scenario,” Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, said Tuesday. He noted that headlines tied to the conflict still have the potential to jolt markets. 7
Shell faces a risk that ongoing operational snags and a drawn-out shipping crunch may blunt some of the gains from higher prices. Last month, Chief Executive Wael Sawan flagged the possibility of European shortages by April should the conflict continue. Separately, Shell’s head of gas has cautioned that the war could shake long-term faith in gas supply. 8
Shell is set to release its full first-quarter results and announce its interim dividend on May 7. This Wednesday’s update, though, will likely be scrutinized for one key point: did the upswing in oil and gas prices offset the fallout in Qatar and wider supply snags earlier in the quarter? 9
