London, May 4, 2026, 16:23 BST
- Berenberg stuck with its Buy rating on Glencore following the miner’s Q1 production update.
- With London shuttered for the Early May Bank Holiday, fresh market reaction will have to wait.
- Glencore reported a 19% jump in copper production, and its trading division is running ahead of long-term earnings targets.
Berenberg isn’t budging from its Buy call on Glencore plc following the company’s Q1 production update, according to a MarketScreener summary of MT Newswires on Monday. The London-listed miner and trader remains in focus after copper’s sharp bounce and with its marketing unit now seen on a stronger footing.
Timing’s a factor here. Glencore’s London-listed shares sat idle Monday, with the London Stock Exchange closed for the Early May Bank Holiday. That left investors stewing over last week’s update and the newest analyst call until trading picks back up.
Investors are watching to see if Glencore can squeeze more cash from climbing copper prices and choppy markets, but higher costs—fuel, acid, currency swings—threaten to eat into those gains. It’s a balancing act that defines Glencore’s 2026 outlook. While mine production remains a big piece, the trading business is built to jump on market disruptions and can quickly shift earnings.
Glencore reported a 19% jump in own-sourced copper production to 199,600 tonnes for the first quarter, crediting improved grades at its African copper operations and both higher throughput and grades at Peru’s Antamina site. Cobalt output, on the other hand, dropped 39% to 5,800 tonnes, with its assets in the Democratic Republic of Congo focusing on copper due to the country’s export quota rules.
Chief Executive Gary Nagle noted first-quarter production was “largely in line with our expectations,” while full-year 2026 guidance is holding steady. Glencore reaffirmed its copper forecast at 810,000 to 870,000 tonnes, looking for Collahuasi to lift output in the second half as ore access and desalinated water supplies pick up. Glencore
Marketing, Glencore’s name for its commodity trading arm (not the ad business), looks like the real wild card here. Glencore flagged that if first-quarter results keep up, full-year adjusted EBIT—earnings before interest and tax, adjusted for company specifics—would easily clear the upper boundary of its $2.3 billion to $3.5 billion long-term guidance.
Nagle expects higher prices will more than make up for rising costs, despite the Middle East conflict driving up prices for diesel and sulphuric acid and a softer U.S. dollar. In Glencore’s update, copper, zinc, and energy coal prices were all up so far this year.
That puts Glencore in a different category from Rio Tinto and Anglo American, whose profits fluctuate more with mine production and raw material prices. S&P Global Market Intelligence calls Glencore a blend: part miner, part heavyweight commodity trader. The setup means Glencore has bigger exposure to swings in physical markets.
Still, volatility has a downside too. Diesel and acid prices could stay elevated even if cobalt prices move up. Glencore also faces restrictions from the DRC’s cobalt quota system, which remains in effect through at least 2027, requiring any output beyond the cap to be held inside the country.
Nuvau Minerals on Monday said it has settled a $10 million post-closing payment owed to Glencore Canada under their earn-in deal for properties in Quebec’s Matagami camp—$5 million handed over in cash, the rest made up with shares. For Glencore, the sum barely makes a dent at group level. Still, it slots into the company’s ongoing strategy to trim non-core assets, with investors’ attention zeroing in on copper, coal, and trading returns.
Glencore shares in London finished Friday at 563 pence, down 4.8 pence for the session, according to the company’s website. Shareholders now look ahead to the annual general meeting in Zug, Switzerland on May 28.
