LONDON, May 7, 2026, 12:03 BST
- ITM Power shares hovered close to Morgan Stanley’s freshly set 170p price target, coming off new multi-year highs earlier this week.
- A senior executive’s share sale and an upcoming UK subsidy review linked to the Chronos manufacturing plan are now putting the rally under pressure.
- Up next: can government support, fresh orders, and tighter cost controls actually push ITM toward break-even?
ITM Power shares spent Thursday trading just shy of Morgan Stanley’s freshly set 170p target, with their recent surge pushing the Sheffield-based hydrogen equipment firm to a price zone German market trackers call a three-year peak. Late morning in London, the stock stood at 170.4p, having climbed as high as 172.9p Wednesday and 173.1p Tuesday. According to boerse.de, the German listing hit a fresh three-year top of 1.94 euros back on May 6.
ITM’s shares find themselves caught between two opposing pressures: a major Wall Street bank has issued an unusually bullish recommendation, while the company is still waiting for UK officials to finalize funding for Chronos, its upcoming electrolyser stack. Electrolysers—these devices split water into hydrogen and oxygen using electricity—and Chronos, when it’s up and running, would bring an extra 1 gigawatt per year of production capacity to the UK.
Morgan Stanley bumped ITM Power up to “overweight” from “equal-weight,” hiking its price target all the way to 170p—previously 60p. The move comes as the bank now sees the company hitting EBITDA break-even by fiscal 2028, which is a year ahead of where consensus sits. EBITDA (that’s earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation) is often used to gauge core operating performance before certain costs. The analysts flagged a “flurry of catalysts” coming in 2026, from UK hydrogen project calls to a potential final investment decision on Chronos. Investing
The call sent the stock right up to Morgan Stanley’s base-case target in short order. Not much margin for missteps now, even with the bank’s research—cited by Investing.com—putting out a bull scenario at 300p and a bear at 50p.
ITM has managed to show tangible operating gains. Back in February, the company bumped up its fiscal 2026 revenue forecast, now expecting 40 million to 43 million pounds—an increase from its earlier 35 million to 40 million pound range—though adjusted EBITDA and cash targets stayed put. Chief Executive Dennis Schulz pointed to firmer revenues and a growing backlog of firm contracts.
The rally wasn’t without its complications for optics around insider selling. Chief Technology Officer Dr Simon Bourne, according to an RNS, exercised 1.33 million options from 2018 and 2019 grants and offloaded 872,738 shares at an average price of 157.44p—mostly to cover the tax bill triggered by exercising those options. Post-sale, Bourne was left holding 656,570 shares, representing 0.095% of the issued share capital.
It’s not the share sale that stands out as the main risk here—it’s execution. The £46.5 million grant from the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero is still hung up in a subsidy-control review, with the UK Subsidy Advice Unit set to publish its findings on May 26. The payout, planned for the 2026-27 and 2027-28 financial years, depends on a new 1GW facility in Sheffield.
If that process falters, or if customer interest doesn’t translate into hard orders, ITM’s Chronos schedule faces a potential slowdown. The next real hurdle is the final investment decision—the board’s official approval for a major capital project.
Even so, the UK government’s contribution makes a mark. Great British Energy is putting in 40 million pounds, and with the government grant added, total support hits 86.5 million pounds. Officials said the project has the potential to bring over 400 jobs to South Yorkshire. Energy Secretary Ed Miliband called it a cornerstone of the government’s clean-energy push. Schulz, for his part, said the money would spur domestic production for Chronos.
ITM is still posting losses. For the half-year, revenue climbed to 18.0 million pounds, up from 15.5 million, while adjusted EBITDA losses shrank to 11.9 million pounds from 16.8 million. Cash on hand was 197.8 million pounds. Contract backlog reached 152 million pounds, with 71% of those contracts now profitable, but the company still ended the six months to Oct. 31 with a pre-tax loss of 14.1 million pounds.
The scope of orders has started to stretch past standard hydrogen ventures. Back in April, ITM announced a strategic tie-up with Rheinmetall, aiming to supply the German defence firm’s Giga PtX project—a decentralised network of synthetic-fuel plants set up for NATO militaries, with an initial focus on the UK. Plans call for each location to feature up to 50 megawatts of electrolysis and turn out between 5,000 and 7,000 tonnes of e-fuel a year.
Signals from peers remain uneven. In the same broker-ratings round-up as Morgan Stanley’s ITM upgrade, Goldman Sachs bumped its price target on Ceres Power—another UK hydrogen player—to 670p from 530p, sticking to its “buy” call. So, analysts are circling the sector again, though ITM’s latest rally appears to have factored in some optimism already. MarketScreener
Right now, this is less about funding and more about proof. ITM’s got the cash, plus backing from the government, and brokers are talking it up louder than before. What’s left? Chronos needs to land enough orders—at margins that work—if break-even is going to move out of the forecast column and onto the balance sheet.
