Mumbai, May 8, 2026, 13:47 IST
State Bank of India goes into its March-quarter report on Friday with investors bracing for soft profit growth—treasury income looks sluggish, and that could blunt the benefits of solid loan momentum and resilient core banking. The board is also likely to discuss a potential dividend for FY26.
Timing is key here—SBI, the country’s biggest lender, often reflects trends in loan demand, deposit pricing, and asset quality for India’s state-run banks. But treasury income, which includes returns from holdings like government bonds, took a hit this quarter as rising bond yields squeezed margins.
According to Upstox, analysts are penciling in a 4% to 7% year-on-year increase in SBI’s standalone net profit, landing somewhere between ₹19,450 crore and ₹20,050 crore. That’s up from ₹18,643 crore posted a year back. Net interest income is also seen growing, with expectations clustered around a 7% to 9% jump to ₹46,150 crore-₹46,950 crore.
Upstox expects net interest margin—a key gauge of lending returns—to drop by 8 to 9 basis points, landing near 2.7%. The culprit: steeper funding costs and the Reserve Bank of India’s recent repo-rate cut. On investors’ radars: bad-loan ratios (non-performing assets), plus trends in loan and deposit growth.
Estimates are all over the map. Brokerages surveyed by Business Standard project SBI’s Q4 profit could be anywhere from down 12% to up 8% versus last year—underscoring just how much treasury moves and provisions might move the needle.
Nomura is looking for net profit to hold steady at ₹18,700 crore, though it predicts operating profit will dip 6% from a year earlier. Kotak Institutional Equities pencils in a steeper slide, putting profit at ₹16,474 crore. On the other hand, Nuvama Institutional Equities and Mirae Asset Sharekhan are both more optimistic, with their forecasts coming in at ₹20,090 crore and ₹20,116.4 crore, respectively.
SBI shares faced selling, slipping around 1.3% by 13:30 IST, according to NDTV Profit. That underperformed the Nifty Bank index, which was down about 1.12%. Bloomberg figures, as cited by NDTV Profit, counted 42 buys and six holds out of 48 analysts covering the bank.
Shares finished Thursday at ₹1,092, The Economic Times reported, putting the stock up 11% since the start of 2026 and 42% higher year-on-year. SBI’s market cap stood above ₹10 lakh crore.
One more thing for the calendar: SBI’s executive committee is set to meet on May 12 to weigh a fundraising plan of up to $2 billion via long-term bonds, The Economic Times reported, citing an exchange filing. The bonds could be issued in one or more tranches and may be offered to the public or via private placement, in U.S. dollars or other major foreign currencies.
It’s no easier for peers. Bank of Baroda, one of the bigger state-run banks up with results this earnings season, is staring at likely treasury losses and squeezed margins—even with loan growth solidly in double digits, Business Standard reports.
Headline profit might not capture everything here. SBI’s Q4 earnings could get a roughly ₹1,500 crore boost from a tax refund, but Nomura flagged the possibility that management will channel that windfall into extra provisions. Kotak Institutional Equities, for its part, is penciling in weaker recoveries and upgrades but says it’s not seeing new stress crop up in any loan book.
Eyes are on future credit growth after SBI Chairman C.S. Setty said the government’s ECLGS 5.0 scheme might unlock a substantial lending window for the bank. “Our estimate is that SBI can provide a Rs 70,000 crore to Rs 80,000 crore credit facility through this scheme,” Setty told The Economic Times. The Economic Times
