Mumbai, May 11, 2026, 16:35 IST
- Adani Power’s market value has moved past NTPC’s, making it India’s most valuable listed power company.
- The rally has come even as NTPC remains far larger by installed capacity.
- Strong earnings, higher contracted capacity and India’s power-demand cycle are driving the re-rating.
Adani Power has overtaken state-run NTPC to become India’s most valuable listed power company, after a near-50% rally in its shares this year lifted its market value to roughly ₹4.3 lakh crore. NSE data showed NTPC at about ₹3.9 lakh crore, putting the Adani Group company ahead of the country’s dominant public-sector generator by market capitalisation, or the total value of a company’s listed shares.
The move matters because the market is now valuing Adani Power above a much larger rival. NTPC runs more than 80 gigawatts of installed capacity, compared with Adani Power’s about 18.2 GW, but investors have bid up the private thermal-power producer on expectations that tighter electricity supply, better contracts and higher utilisation will feed earnings faster.
Indian stocks fell sharply on Monday, making the shift stand out. The Nifty 50 dropped 1.49% and the Sensex lost 1.7%, while the rupee hit a record closing low, as higher oil prices and Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s call for fuel-saving measures weighed on sentiment. Arun Kejriwal, founder of Kejriwal Research and Investment Services, called the selloff a “knee-jerk reaction,” but said oil above $100 remained the bigger overhang. Reuters
Adani Power’s fourth-quarter numbers gave the stock a base for the run. The company said profit after tax rose 64% year on year to ₹4,271 crore, while EBITDA — earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation — rose 27% to ₹6,498 crore. It also said 95% of operating capacity is now tied up under power purchase agreements, long-term contracts to sell electricity.
Jefferies has raised its target price on Adani Power to ₹255 from ₹185, citing rising demand and growth prospects over the next three to four years. The brokerage said new thermal power purchase agreements were being signed near ₹6 per unit, above earlier levels, and assigned the stock a premium to NTPC’s valuation because of faster growth and “merchant upside,” a reference to power sold outside fixed contracts. The Economic Times
Chief Executive S.B. Khyalia framed the company’s case around India’s need for reliable baseload power as renewables grow. Thermal power, he said, is “stabilizing the grid and meeting peak demand,” while Adani Power continues to add capacity and lock in long-term contracts. Adani
The company generated 105 billion units of power in FY26 and has said its expansion capacity tie-ups have reached 13.3 GW. Its current plan points to capacity rising to 31 GW by 2030 and 42 GW by 2032, a scale-up that has helped investors look beyond the older view that coal-fired assets would be stranded by the energy transition.
There is still a sharp contrast with peers. Tata Power’s market value is around ₹1.4 lakh crore, while JSW Energy is below ₹1 lakh crore, according to reports cited by the linked Indian business media. That leaves the market treating Adani Power less like a conventional utility and more like a growth vehicle tied to India’s electricity shortfall.
But the trade is not clean. Jefferies flagged risks from old PPA disputes, lower merchant realisations, weaker demand and delays in payments from the 1.6 GW Godda plant that supplies Bangladesh. Coal supply, regulation and the longer-term shift to solar and wind also remain live concerns for a company whose core business is thermal power.
Brokerage views are already splitting after the rally. Business Today reported last week that ICICI Securities had cut Adani Power to a lower rating with a ₹233 target and JM Financial had a ₹202 target with a “reduce” call, while Jefferies stayed positive at ₹255. That gap sums up the market’s question: whether Adani Power’s earnings growth can keep pace with a valuation that has now put it ahead of NTPC. Businesstoday
