Mumbai, May 11, 2026, 16:35 IST
- Adani Power just overtook NTPC in market capitalization, putting it at the top among India’s listed power firms.
- Yet the rally has played out while NTPC still holds a much bigger installed capacity.
- Re-rating is getting a push from strong earnings, an increase in contracted capacity, and the current phase of India’s power-demand cycle.
Adani Power has surged past state-run NTPC, now sitting as India’s most valuable publicly traded power company. Its shares have soared nearly 50% so far this year, pushing the market cap up to about ₹4.3 lakh crore. NTPC, by comparison, stands at roughly ₹3.9 lakh crore, according to NSE data. That puts the Adani Group firm ahead of the country’s public-sector powerhouse in terms of total listed share value.
This shift is notable: Adani Power now commands a higher market value than NTPC, even though NTPC operates over 80 gigawatts of installed capacity—far outstripping Adani Power’s 18.2 GW. Investors, eyeing the private thermal-power player, have pushed up its stock on bets that squeezed electricity supplies, improved contracts, and stronger utilisation rates will accelerate its earnings.
Indian shares took a steep dive Monday. Nifty 50 slid 1.49%, Sensex shed 1.7%. The rupee, meanwhile, closed at an all-time low. Traders pointed to surging oil prices and Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s push for fuel conservation as key pressures. “It’s a knee-jerk reaction,” said Arun Kejriwal of Kejriwal Research and Investment Services, though he flagged oil holding above $100 as the real headwind. Reuters
Adani Power’s Q4 results handed the stock a solid launchpad. Profit after tax jumped 64% year-on-year, reaching ₹4,271 crore, and EBITDA climbed 27% to ₹6,498 crore. According to the company, 95% of its operating capacity has been locked in through power purchase agreements — those long-term contracts for selling electricity.
Jefferies bumped up its target on Adani Power to ₹255 from ₹185, pointing to expectations for stronger demand and expansion over the next three to four years. The firm noted new thermal power purchase deals are landing close to ₹6 per unit—higher than before—and gave the stock a premium valuation over NTPC, highlighting Adani’s quicker growth and what it called “merchant upside,” meaning power sales outside locked-in contracts. The Economic Times
CEO S.B. Khyalia put the spotlight on India’s push for steady baseload power, especially as renewables ramp up. “Stabilizing the grid and meeting peak demand”—that’s how he described thermal power’s role. Adani Power, for its part, is pressing ahead with capacity expansions and signing long-term deals. Adani
The company reported power generation of 105 billion units for FY26, and says it has already lined up expansion agreements totaling 13.3 GW. Looking ahead, management is targeting 31 GW capacity by 2030, moving up to 42 GW by 2032. This aggressive ramp-up has prompted investors to reconsider the long-running notion that coal-based assets would end up stranded as the energy transition accelerates.
The gap with rivals remains stark. Tata Power’s valuation sits at about ₹1.4 lakh crore, and JSW Energy trails under ₹1 lakh crore, as referenced by local business media. That dynamic has the market pricing Adani Power more as a bet on India’s power deficit than as a standard utility.
Still, the trade comes with strings. Jefferies pointed to lingering issues—old PPA disputes, softer merchant pricing, sluggish demand, and late payments tied to the 1.6 GW Godda plant supplying Bangladesh. Coal sourcing headaches, regulatory uncertainty, and the industry’s tilt toward solar and wind all keep pressure on a business that remains anchored in thermal power.
Brokerages aren’t exactly in sync after the stock’s surge. Business Today noted last week that ICICI Securities downgraded Adani Power, tagging it with a ₹233 target. JM Financial’s stance: “reduce,” with a ₹202 target. Jefferies, on the other hand, stuck to a positive outlook and set the bar at ₹255. The divergence pretty much highlights the key issue—can Adani Power’s earnings growth justify a valuation now topping NTPC? Businesstoday
