London, May 13, 2026, 11:04 BST
- Shell’s London-listed shares were nearly flat in late morning trade, with the price held between active buybacks, lower oil, and still-high Middle East supply risk.
- The fresh company news is small but useful for sentiment: Shell kept buying back shares and is reportedly looking to sell about 60 French highway petrol stations.
- Bulls point to strong cash generation, oil trading and the 5% dividend increase. Bears point to weaker second-quarter gas volumes, higher debt, and a buyback cut from recent levels.
Shell’s stock was almost motionless by late morning in London, quoted at 3,156.25p, down 0.04%, on a Cboe Europe real-time estimate. That flat line says more than it first appears to. Investors are not ignoring Shell; they are weighing two live stories that pull in opposite directions.
The first is oil. Brent slipped 0.2% to $107.58 a barrel and WTI fell 0.4% to $101.79 as traders watched a fragile Middle East ceasefire and the coming Trump-Xi meeting in Beijing. Lower crude usually presses Shell, but oil is still above $100, so the cash-flow backdrop has not broken.
The second is capital return. Shell said it bought 1,234,427 shares for cancellation on May 12 across LSE, Chi-X and BATS, at volume-weighted average prices around £31.61. A buyback means the company uses cash to buy its own stock; when shares are cancelled, the remaining shares own a slightly bigger slice of the business.
There was also a portfolio angle. Reuters reported Tuesday that Shell intends to sell about 60 French highway petrol stations, a business that booked €108.5 million in operating profit in 2025, with a buyer expected in the third quarter and completion in early 2027. It is not a balance-sheet event on its own, but it fits the larger Shell pattern: trim lower-priority retail assets, push cash toward buybacks, upstream, LNG and trading.
The recent earnings print still frames the trade. Shell delivered $6.9 billion in first-quarter adjusted earnings — its preferred profit gauge after stripping out some accounting swings — and raised the dividend by 5%, but also cut the quarterly buyback to $3 billion from $3.5 billion. CFO Sinead Gorman said the dividend hike “reflects that confidence” in Shell’s long-term cash flows. Reuters
The bullish read is clear. Shell is making money in a volatile market, not just surviving it. Its products business, which includes refining and trading, generated about $2.0 billion of adjusted earnings, and Reuters noted that strong trading has also helped European peers BP and TotalEnergies more than U.S. rivals such as Exxon Mobil.
The bear case pushes back fast. The same war-driven market that helps trading is also hitting operations. Shell guided for second-quarter integrated gas production of 580,000 to 640,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, down from 909,000 in the first quarter, and said the outlook reflects the Middle East conflict and higher maintenance.
Cash quality is another restraint. Cash flow from operations was $6.1 billion, after an $11.2 billion working-capital outflow — plain English: cash tied up in inventories, receivables and related short-term items. Net debt rose to $52.6 billion. That helps explain why Shell lifted the dividend but kept the buyback smaller than some investors wanted.
Prediction markets line up with that uneasy setup. Polymarket traders put only an 8% chance on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by the end of May and 44% by July 31, while Kalshi listed “before Aug. 1” at 45%, “before Sept. 1” at 46%, and “before Oct. 1” at 58%. That supports an oil-risk premium, but it also means more disruption for Shell’s gas and LNG system. Polymarket
The official energy data is not calming. The IEA said global oil supply will fall 1.78 million barrels per day short of demand in 2026 and warned of severe undersupply through the third quarter, while the EIA now assumes Hormuz stays effectively closed through the end of May and sees Brent averaging about $106 in May and June.
That is why Shell’s chart is stuck rather than cleanly rallying. High oil helps earnings. High oil also raises inflation risk and demand destruction — the point where customers cut use because prices bite. Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova, summed up the tape bluntly: “sharp swings are likely to persist.” Reuters
For now, Shell looks less like a simple oil-price bet and more like a stress test of execution. Buybacks and disposals give support. Trading profits give support. But lower second-quarter volumes, higher net debt and a still-uncertain Hormuz path keep the stock from breaking out.
