Sydney, May 14, 2026, 06:05 AEST
- Macquarie shares closed up 1.1% on May 13, while mortgage-heavy bank peers sold off.
- Analysts lifted FY2027 earnings-per-share forecasts after Macquarie’s profit beat, though the consensus target price stayed near A$249.
- Energy trading, asset sales and higher-rate risks remain the swing factors.
Macquarie Group shares rose on Wednesday, standing apart from a sharp selloff in Australian bank stocks after Commonwealth Bank of Australia’s provision shock, as investors kept their focus on Macquarie’s stronger-than-expected annual result and its commodities arm. Macquarie closed at A$236.80, up A$2.60, or 1.1%, on May 13.
That matters because Macquarie is not being traded like a plain mortgage bank right now. CBA lost nearly A$30 billion in market value after it lifted provisions and investors weighed budget changes to negative gearing — the use of rental-property losses to cut taxable income — while Westpac and National Australia Bank also fell.
The contrast has pushed Macquarie back into a familiar argument: whether the Sydney firm is a bank, a global markets house, an asset manager, or some awkward mix of all three. For the moment, the market is rewarding the mix.
Macquarie said on May 8 that net profit for the year to March 31 rose 30% to A$4.85 billion, with second-half profit of A$3.19 billion marking a record half-year result. Its Commodities and Global Markets division delivered A$4.22 billion in profit contribution, up 49%, helped by client hedging in gas, power and oil and the sale of the OnStream meters platform.
Reuters reported that the result beat a Visible Alpha consensus forecast of A$4.39 billion, with Middle East conflict helping lift activity in oil and gas trading. Macquarie’s shares briefly hit a record A$249.49 on result day before giving back gains in a weaker broader market.
Analysts have not chased the stock much higher yet. Simply Wall St said 11 analysts now expect FY2027 revenue of A$19.5 billion and statutory earnings per share of A$13.03, up from a pre-result EPS forecast of A$12.46, while the consensus target price stayed unchanged at A$249.
There is still a split. JPMorgan raised its Macquarie price target to A$265 from A$240 and kept an Overweight rating, while Investing.com also cited recent opposing views from Goldman Sachs and Jefferies, underlining that valuation, not earnings momentum alone, is now the harder question.
Julia Weng of Paradice Investment Management told Livewire Markets she remained positive on Macquarie, saying the firm was “very strong in commodities trading” and should benefit from energy volatility. Hamish FitzSimons of AllianceBernstein was more wary, calling the stock a “hold heading to a sell” after its recent rise. Livewire Markets
Higher rates complicate the story. Polymarket traders priced an 80% chance that the Reserve Bank of Australia leaves rates unchanged at its June meeting, against a 21% chance of another increase and less than 1% chance of a cut, in a small market with about $23,600 in volume.
Macquarie’s retail bank is still growing, though from a different base than CBA or Westpac. Broker Daily reported that Macquarie’s home loan portfolio rose 28% over the year to A$181.3 billion, giving it about 7.1% of the Australian mortgage market, helped by broker-originated lending.
The risk is that the good news is cyclical. Energy-market volatility can fatten trading income, but it can also fade, and Macquarie’s returns from buying and selling assets face a tougher test when bond yields stay high. Simon Wright, head of Commodities and Global Markets, told Reuters that while volatility was welcome, prolonged volatility can curb client appetite.
For now, Macquarie has bought itself some time. The shares are below last week’s record, but they held up on a day when investors punished Australia’s mortgage banks. That is the trade the market is making: less CBA, more commodities and capital markets — at least until the next rate decision or oil shock changes the tape.
