MELBOURNE, May 15, 2026, 03:09 AEST
- BHP’s incoming chief Brandon Craig, set to step in on July 1, says the company is open to smaller bolt-on acquisitions—deals designed to mesh with what’s already running.
- BHP shares climbed to all-time highs, with investors betting on increased exposure to copper.
- Inventories of BHP’s Jimblebar iron ore at China’s ports have dropped since Beijing lifted purchase restrictions, yet stockpiles are still elevated.
Brandon Craig, the next CEO of BHP Group Ltd, is signaling a return to dealmaking for the world’s largest listed miner. Craig said BHP is open to exploration, striking partnerships, and pursuing smaller acquisitions as it seeks to lock in growth opportunities past 2035.
Timing is key here. BHP’s leadership is in transition just as copper pulls more weight in its earnings mix, the stock notching fresh highs, and China’s iron ore market still feeling the aftershocks of a drawn-out procurement spat.
Craig is stepping in for Mike Henry as of July 1. Speaking at the Bank of America mining event, he made it clear: BHP isn’t chasing expansion just for the sake of it, but is targeting growth that boosts value. One of his main goals? Making sure BHP keeps its options open for meaningful expansion past 2035. That could include targeted, smaller “bolt on” deals, provided the numbers make sense. BHP
The company expects its organic growth opportunities to yield compound annual copper-equivalent production growth of 3% to 4% through 2035. Copper-equivalent measures output from various commodities in terms of copper. BHP is also targeting attributable copper output of around 2 million tonnes per year by 2035.
Investors didn’t wait around. BHP’s ASX shares closed at A$62.06, up 0.88%, following the latest session. Over in the U.S., its ADR last changed hands at $89.44, off by 1.5%. Earlier this week, Reuters noted BHP shares touched a record A$61.61, bringing gains to 31% for the year.
BHP is set to bring steel industry expertise to its board, appointing Mark Vassella, the former BlueScope Steel chief executive, as a non-executive director starting June 1. In a filing, BHP Chair Ross McEwan pointed to Vassella’s background in “global resource development” and his connections with both communities and governments. SEC
BHP’s iron ore business—long a cornerstone for the company—saw some action as well. According to Reuters, stocks of Jimblebar fines at Chinese ports dropped 3.1% since late April, landing at 8.42 million tonnes by May 12. That’s the lowest reading since late December, but inventories remain hefty: still close to five times where they sat last September.
Back in April, following visits from Henry and Craig, China eased its restrictions on certain BHP iron ore cargoes, effectively resolving a standoff that had squeezed purchases by local steelmakers. RBC Capital Markets analyst Kaan Peker told Reuters the spat “had escalated to such a point that you needed a resolution.” Meanwhile, competitors Rio Tinto and Fortescue had already decided to test alternative iron ore pricing indexes. Reuters
No one’s missing the competitive stakes here. BHP, with Henry at the helm, made multiple runs at Anglo American, chasing bigger copper assets; Anglo brushed off a $49 billion proposal in May 2024. Now Craig signals he’s steering away from that high-visibility play, but copper is still on the table.
BHP’s latest operational review puts Craig in the spotlight. Last month, Henry pointed to record highs at Escondida—both in material mined and concentrator throughput. Western Australia Iron Ore also notched a production record. BHP pulled in roughly $4.8 billion, tallying proceeds from the Antamina silver streaming agreement, the Carajás sale, plus cash from previous coal disposals.
The copper trade isn’t a slam dunk, if you look at the prediction markets. Kalshi’s May 29 contracts put the odds of copper pushing past $6.35 per pound at roughly 55%, with only about a 34% chance for prices to top $6.41. Traders clearly expect firm pricing, but they’re not unanimous on another big move up.
The risks jump out. If China’s steel demand falters, iron ore cash flow takes a hit. Copper’s upside? It hinges on permitting, flawless execution, and not overpaying for assets. Smaller deals might go down smoother than another Anglo attempt, though for a giant like BHP, they might barely register.
At this stage, Craig is pitching continuity—just amped up: increased copper, a heavier focus on partnerships, maybe some small acquisitions, and still touting capital discipline. Investors have responded well so far. But if expansion comes with the wrong price tag, their patience could run short.
