Sydney, May 17, 2026, 03:02 AEST
- S&P/ASX 200 slipped 0.1% on Friday to finish at 8,630.8 and dropped 1.2% this week. That’s the index’s poorest weekly performance in over three weeks.
- Financials ended the week down 4.3% as housing-tax changes in the budget hit expectations for bank mortgage growth. Miners gained 1.7% over the week, even with a steep drop on Friday.
- SPI 200 futures finished at 8,617.0 on May 15. If the futures are any guide, Monday’s start could see a mild dip.
ASX shares are set to start the week lower after the S&P/ASX 200 posted its worst weekly stretch in over three weeks. Banks pulled the benchmark down last week, while fresh global inflation concerns rattled markets late Friday.
ASX trading resumes Monday after the cash market closed for the weekend. The regular session runs from about 09:59:45 to 16:00 Sydney time. Monday’s open faces a lot at once: a Wall Street selloff from Friday, higher oil prices, and stronger bond yields.
Banks were the main issue. Financials managed a 1% gain on Friday, reversing some losses from earlier in the week, but the group still dropped 4.3% over the week. That’s their weakest weekly performance in more than six months. The drop came after the federal budget proposed limiting negative gearing — allowing property investors to use losses to offset taxable income — to only new properties from July 2027. Investors saw that as a risk for mortgage demand.
Commonwealth Bank of Australia snapped back 1.9% on Friday, clawing back just a bit after shares tanked 10.43% on Wednesday, erasing almost A$30 billion in market value. The selling spilled into Westpac, National Australia Bank, and ANZ midweek, as some investors worried about a slowdown in housing turnover and investor lending growth.
CBA flagged some issues for investors. The bank lifted collective provisions by A$200 million. Loan impairment charges hit A$316 million, up from A$223 million last year. “Conflict in the Middle East is disrupting critical supply chains and contributing to global uncertainty,” Chief Executive Matt Comyn said. Reuters
Marc Jocum, senior product and investment strategist at Global X ETFs Australia, said the bounce in banks is “tactical rather than conviction-led” and the outlook for the sector is “murky”. Jocum pointed to changes in budget-linked housing and investor lending, along with higher provisions and arrears, as reasons why August earnings will be the next real test for banks. Business Recorder
Banks got a lift late this week, with some investors chasing dividend yield, according to Craig Sidney, senior investment adviser at Shaw and Partners. He pointed to the higher capital gains taxes announced in the budget as a possible reason, saying this could push money out of growth stocks. “That helped explain the late-week bank bounce, though not the broader weekly damage,” Sidney said. Business Recorder
Miners slid 3.1% on Friday as iron ore and copper prices weakened. The resources sub-index still ended the week up 1.7%. BHP was down 2.6% and Rio Tinto fell 3.2% after both hit record highs earlier in the week.
Stocks dropped Friday with global leads looking weak into the weekend. The Dow lost 1.07%, the S&P 500 gave up 1.24%, and the Nasdaq slid 1.54%. Brent crude added 3.35% to $109.26 a barrel. U.S. Treasury yields pushed higher as oil’s move kept inflation in focus. Kenny Polcari, chief market strategist at Slatestone Wealth, said the market had “gotten way ahead of itself” and traders were watching inflation and bond-market signals now. Reuters
Rate risk hasn’t gone away. The Reserve Bank of Australia left its cash rate target at 4.35% after the hike in May. The next policy decision comes up June 16. Before then, markets will get RBA minutes on May 19 and April labour-force data on May 21, which is an important check on job market tightness and its impact on rates.
SPI 200 futures settled at 8,617.0 on May 15, finishing about 14 points under the ASX 200 cash index close. The move signals a cautious start for Monday, likely opening down about 0.2%, unless weekend headlines on oil, U.S.-China talks or Wall Street futures change the tone. The near-term index view stays cautious, not outright bearish.
But it can go either way. If oil prices fall, bonds settle, or there’s progress on U.S.-China talks, buyers might return to miners and banks that have dropped. On the flip side, if crude climbs, yields rise and Australian jobs data comes in hot, investors could start fretting that rates will stay high. That would put the ASX 200 at risk of dropping to last week’s lows again.
