Sydney, June 16, 2026, 04:04 AEST
- National Australia Bank ended Monday’s session at A$37.46, up 2.63%. Shares traded in a A$36.90 to A$37.78 range. Google
- The S&P/ASX 200 jumped 1.25% to 8,914 as a broad risk-on rally lifted the index, bringing in the big four banks. News
- Traders are watching the Reserve Bank of Australia’s June 16 policy call, with most economists seeing no change and the cash rate likely steady at 4.35%. Reuters
National Australia Bank Limited shares jumped Monday as buyers moved back into Australian bank stocks. NAB ended the day at A$37.46, up A$0.96, or 2.63%, on about 7.5 million shares changing hands. The stock is still trading well under its 52-week high at A$49.45 but has rebounded from last week’s A$35.48 low, which traders say made it more attractive after the slow start to June. Google
NAB wasn’t the only story traders chased today. Australian shares jumped after a US-Iran peace deal boosted risk-on trades and sent oil tumbling, easing some inflation and growth concerns. The S&P/ASX 200 put on 110 points to 8,914, with the All Ordinaries up 1.35% at 9,128. Big banks rallied, too. That’s relevant for NAB—bank shares usually track the cycle: up when markets see steady growth, low funding risks and contained loan losses, down when rate hikes hit borrowers or knock future credit demand. News
RBA rates decision comes up June 16 after its policy board meets over two days. The call is set for 2:30 p.m. AEST. A Reuters poll showed 42 out of 45 economists predict rates hold steady at 4.35%. The RBA lifted rates by 75 basis points since February. One basis point equals 0.01 percentage point. “The chance of a move at the June meeting is very low,” NAB senior economist Taylor Nugent told Reuters. Still, the risk hasn’t gone away since inflation is still running above the RBA’s 2–3% target. Reuters
NAB bulls point to ongoing momentum in the core bank. In its May half-year, NAB reported cash earnings of A$3.56 billion, stripping out the impact from its software capitalisation changes. Revenue was up 3.1%, costs edged down, and the net interest margin saw a lift. NIM is the difference between what the bank makes on loans versus what it pays out on funding and deposits. Reuters said business lending volumes climbed more than 10%. That is key for NAB, given its focus on business and private banking. Nab
Bears say NAB shares still face serious risks. Reuters said first-half cash earnings came in at A$2.64 billion with the software-policy charge, short of the Visible Alpha forecast for A$2.93 billion. Credit impairment charges hit A$706 million. CEO Andrew Irvine told the earnings call, “It’s very hard to forecast in these times.” Australian banks have traded at a premium to some larger global peers. That can leave their shares more exposed to bad news around margins, mortgage competition, or rising bad debts. Reuters
NAB is trading at A$37.46, with the stock looking more in line with fair value than a bargain. Dividend support is clear: the bank’s 2026 interim dividend is 85 cents per share, fully franked, set for payment on July 2. After that, NAB’s next scheduled update is its third-quarter trading update on August 17. Investors are watching to see if the RBA can hold rates steady without igniting inflation, and if NAB can keep business lending up without a spike in bad debts. NAB
