LONDON, June 22, 2026, 11:04 BST
- NatWest was near 636.6p, off 0.19%. UK political uncertainty dragged on sterling and local names.
- The stock ended about 31 basis points better than the FTSE 250. That points to investors holding off on pricing in a big earnings shock.
- July 31 half-year results and the expected summer close for the Evelyn Partners deal are the next big hurdles.
NatWest Group (LSE: NWG) traded at a 636.6p midpoint just before noon Monday, with the stock offered at 636.8p and bid at 636.4p. That’s 1.2p lower, or 0.19% down from Friday’s close. Pressure on the price seemed macro. Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s resignation sent sterling 0.27% lower, UK mid-caps fell about 0.5%, and there was no new trading update from NatWest. The move looked like a risk pause after June’s rally, not a shift in NatWest’s earnings view.
The market’s focus is on the relative move. LSE: NWG dropped about 31 basis points less than the FTSE 250, which is usually a proxy for UK domestic stocks. That’s notable given NatWest’s heavy UK exposure; a bigger drop would be typical if traders saw Starmer’s exit as an immediate risk to consumer credit or business loans. But the market is looking at it more as a fiscal-policy story for later.
Ten-year gilt yields held steady at 4.85%. The FTSE 100 edged down a touch. Ruth Gregory, deputy chief UK economist at Capital Economics, said, “So far, markets have mostly shrugged off the news.” Whether that holds depends on who becomes prime minister and chancellor, and whether fiscal rules stay in place. Reuters
Interest rates give NatWest another backstop. The Bank of England kept Bank Rate at 3.75% last week with a 7–2 vote; two policymakers pushed for a hike to 4%. If rates stay up for longer, banks can get a lift in income from loans and structural hedges, but it comes down to how deposits are priced and funding shakes out. With a split vote, a sharp drop in lending margins looks less likely for now.
NatWest came into this political flap with good momentum. Profit for the first quarter was £1.4 billion. Earnings per share jumped 15.5% to 17.9p. Return on tangible equity hit 18.2%. Tangible net asset value moved up to 400p per share. CEO Paul Thwaite called it “our consistent delivery for customers and shareholders.” Natwestgroup
NatWest is trading at 636.6p, or around 1.59 times its latest tangible net asset value per share of 400p. According to Hargreaves Lansdown, shares stand at about 9.38 times earnings and show a predicted dividend yield of 5.11%. Management has guided 2026 income, before notable items, at the top of the £17.2 billion–£17.6 billion range. Return on tangible equity is seen above 17% and the loan-impairment rate kept below 25 basis points. At this multiple, the market is pricing in solid profit but not without risk.
Much of Monday’s muted drop lines up with the chart moves. NatWest is up about 8.3% since closing at 587.6p on June 11, with especially strong gains June 12, 16 and 17. Shares are still 9.8% below the 52-week peak of 705.4p, which leaves space for buyers but also profit-taking. Traders found a pocket for that near 640p. The stock traded between 634.4p to 639.2p on Monday.
NatWest isn’t due for another financial update ahead of its half-year results set for July 31. In the meantime, the stock could be more volatile than usual, moving with sterling, yields in gilts, and any word on who the next government might pick for its fiscal team. If the gilt market holds steady, focus may shift back to NatWest’s income targets and capital return plans, moving away from the political news cycle.
The bear case centers on a small but important area. If shares close decisively below the 632p–634p support zone, that would undercut Friday and Monday lows and put the 610p–614p range from June 12–15 in play. If fiscal policy gets looser, gilt yields and wholesale funding costs could go up. Stubbornly high borrowing rates could also push up arrears and impairments for customers. Both would put the bank’s sub-25-basis-point impairment target and its valuation premium over tangible book under pressure.
Outside of politics, NatWest is moving forward with its £2.7 billion purchase of Evelyn Partners this summer, pending regulatory sign-off. The bank sees about £100 million of cost synergies from the deal, but it’s also factoring in a near 130-basis-point CET1 capital hit. Key for the market is July 31, when investors will find out if NatWest keeps income guidance at the top end and folds in Evelyn without hitting its capital-return plans.
