LONDON, June 22, 2026, 11:02 BST
- IAG rose 2.09% to about 464p, hitting a new 52-week high at 465.55p.
- Deutsche Bank lifted its price target 17.4% to 540p, which brings back about 16.4% potential upside.
- Brent crude fell under $80 a barrel, taking some pressure off IAG’s fuel bill for 2026.
International Consolidated Airlines Group (LSE:IAG) gained 2.09%, or 9.5p, to about 464p in delayed late-morning trade Monday, after it set a new 52-week high at 465.55p. Moves by Deutsche Bank, which raised its price target to 540p from 460p, and a drop in Brent crude below $80 a barrel after U.S.-Iran talks, fed the strength. The rally reversed Friday’s 1.79% drop and put IAG ahead of a European market that slipped.
IAG shares reversed hard. The stock closed Friday at 454.8p, down from Thursday’s 463.1p close. It had traded close to its previous yearly high before slipping, looking like a failed breakout. But Monday the shares pushed past that old ceiling, hitting 465.55p, while the STOXX Europe 600 was off about 0.1%.
Deutsche Bank didn’t just stick with its Buy call. On Monday, IAG traded close to 464p. The bank’s old 460p target pointed to about 0.9% downside. That changed as Deutsche lifted the target to 540p, putting potential upside at 16.4%. So the broker shifted its valuation by around 17.2 percentage points. That’s the main calculation: Deutsche’s note moved IAG from looking fully priced to showing some headroom, even after Monday’s gains.
Oil was the macro play. Brent slipped 61 cents to $79.96 a barrel by 08:15 GMT. This came after the latest U.S.-Iran talks ended, with signs pointing to possible waivers for Iranian oil and petrochemical exports. “The main factor weighing on oil prices today” was progress in those negotiations, UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said. Reuters
The hedge book blunts the effect of falling crude on earnings. IAG said in May it was 70% hedged for the rest of 2026, with estimated total fuel costs near €9 billion. The company also said it aimed to recover 60% of the extra fuel cost via fares, cost measures and aircraft efficiency. So Monday’s move is less about the market grabbing a quick win from lower oil, and more about bets on whether the fuel squeeze has peaked.
That reassessment has some numbers behind it. First-quarter revenue rose 1.9% to €7.18 billion. Operating profit jumped 77.3% to €351 million. Net debt dropped to €4.18 billion, down from €5.95 billion at the end of 2025. Total liquidity now stands at €12.73 billion. IAG has more flexibility than most airlines to handle near-term fuel or capacity shocks.
The earnings story at IAG is still up in the air. The airline now sees 2026 profit coming in lower than what it previously told the market, and it’s also guiding for free cash flow under its earlier €3 billion target. For capacity, IAG expects about 1% in the second quarter and 2% in the third. Booked revenue for Q2 reached 80%, close to what’s typical for the group. Some investors are looking for strong demand and easing fuel costs to help make up the gap before peak summer numbers come through.
Monday shares bounced after Friday’s drop, as the deal story cooled off. IAG CEO Luis Gallego told the Financial Times that stiff European competition rules would make a takeover of easyJet tough. Traders started looking away from M&A hopes, focusing again on near-term earnings levers—fuel, fares, and cash returns.
IAG’s €0.05-per-share final dividend is about to go ex-dividend on June 25, with payments set to start from June 29. Shareholders will be watching that date. The company also says it is still on track to hand out the remaining €1 billion in planned excess cash returns by the end of February 2027.
The bear scenario is focused on the risk of a failed breakout. IAG needs to stay above 454.8p; slipping below that and then under Friday’s 452.9p low would put shares back in the old range. Thursday’s ex-dividend move needs to be separated from actual selling. On the macro side, more trouble around the Strait of Hormuz could snap the recent oil slide. IAG has already cut profit, cash flow and capacity forecasts. Susannah Streeter at Wealth Club said there’s “still a long way to go” before any durable U.S.-Iran deal. SharePrices
The focus shifts to IAG’s July 31 second-quarter report. Traders are watching for signs that travel demand holds up through the summer, whether the company can deliver on its 60% fuel-cost recovery goal, and if a better oil curve can help counter the May earnings alert.
