Sydney, June 23, 2026, 09:04 (AEST)
Qantas Airways (ASX:QAN) will start trading Tuesday at A$10.09, up 0.3% from Monday’s close. The S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.14% to 8,816.1. Sydney’s cash market was still in pre-open ahead of a regular 10:00 start.
Qantas shares are up 7.9% from A$9.35 a week ago. That move brings fuel costs back into focus for the airline’s investment outlook.
U.S. officials on Monday issued a temporary 60-day license for Iranian oil exports through August 21, with talks ongoing for a broader deal. Brent crude slid 3.29% to US$77.93 a barrel. U.S. crude lost 1.84% at US$75.19. Prices pulled back as traders saw less risk to supply moving through the Strait of Hormuz.
That shift is directly tied to Qantas. In April the airline said it had hedged around 90% of its crude exposure for the second half, locking in some of the cost through contracts. But it’s still mostly open to jet refining margins—the extra charge for turning crude into jet fuel. Qantas said it saw its fuel bill for the six months to June at A$3.1 billion to A$3.3 billion.
Airlines are likely to keep most of the fuel savings to protect margins instead of moving quickly to lower fares, according to an industry note out Monday. “What remains crucial is the ability to hold price,” said Conor Cunningham at Melius Research. John Strickland, an aviation analyst, said some Middle Eastern airlines might turn to promotions to get passengers back. Reuters
Qantas has hiked fares and is keeping a five-point cut to domestic seat capacity in place until the end of September. The airline also lowered its planned group international capacity by two points for the first quarter of fiscal 2027 as it sends more planes to higher-performing European routes.
Travel stocks were split Monday. Virgin Australia dropped 1.4% to A$2.80. Flight Centre ticked up 0.2% to A$11.94. Qantas kept a bit of an edge over its main listed domestic airline peer and a top travel retailer.
Project Sunrise is still Qantas’ big growth plan for the years ahead. The airline is set to launch non-stop Sydney-London service in October 2027. Qantas wants to price tickets about 20% above one-stop rivals. The company estimates the program will lift annual earnings by more than A$400 million. CEO Vanessa Hudson said Australia’s distance “should never stand in the way”, and analyst John Strickland said, “What they are selling is time.” Reuters
But relief isn’t one-sided. Australia’s move to ease travel warnings for the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and other Gulf states is likely to help Emirates and other Middle East airlines recover some Australia-Europe traffic, which could mean tougher fare competition. Oil could become volatile again if the temporary U.S.-Iran deal runs into trouble; crude prices moved higher last week after Washington warned the deal wasn’t final.
Qantas wraps up its financial year on June 30, with preliminary full-year results coming August 27. Investors are waiting for more details on fiscal 2027 outlook for fuel, capacity and shareholder returns. The stock is still heavily influenced by oil prices and jet-fuel refining costs for now.
