Sydney, June 24, 2026, 08:06 AEST
Evolution Mining shares are set for Wednesday’s ASX open after dropping 2.5% to close at A$12.64 Tuesday. The S&P/ASX 200 ended down 0.3% at 8,787. Northern Star Resources slipped 2.7%. Genesis Minerals fell 5.5%.
Gold slumped. Spot prices dropped 1.93% to US$4,109.49 an ounce as bets on higher rates made non-yielding assets less attractive. The dollar index hit a one-year high. “The data to me does not suggest that they need to be raising rates,” said Amanda Agati, chief investment officer at PNC Asset Management Group. Reuters
EVN’s copper number stands out less. Evolution’s site lists gold at A$5,942/oz and copper at A$19,412/t. But its April FY26 cash-flow estimate is based on gold at A$6,500 and copper at A$17,500.
Evolution’s sensitivity table shows a A$60 million to A$70 million effect on FY26 cash flow for every A$100-an-ounce move in gold. For copper, the impact is A$70 million to A$80 million for each A$1,100-a-tonne shift. On a straight calculation, Evolution is facing a gold shortfall for FY26 of A$335 million to A$391 million, but copper would offset that by A$122 million to A$139 million. The net hole from metal prices comes in around A$196 million to A$269 million if spot is used for the forecast. Copper softens about a third of the negative impact compared to just using gold numbers.
Evolution reported A$406 million in group cash flow for the March quarter. Net cash stood at A$42 million with A$1.371 billion in cash on hand. CEO Lawrie Conway said in April the company expects “further cash flow upside in the June quarter” and that Evolution is still in line with guidance.
Australian dollar weakness offset some of gold’s losses Tuesday. The Reserve Bank of Australia reference rate moved down to US$0.6964 after closing at US$0.7004 Monday, down about 0.6%. That cut the hit to gold prices in local currency terms.
Copper’s cushion isn’t set. Copper sank 3.4% on Tuesday, and Evolution has flagged weather at Ernest Henry as a drag, with FY26 copper now tracking to the lower end of guidance. The stress test here is not a prediction: Evolution says its sensitivity table leaves out first-half actuals. The last 18,000 ounces of forward gold sales are due in June at A$3,284 an ounce.
Evolution’s June-quarter earnings are due July 15. The report will indicate if the net-cash position improved as Conway predicted and reveal how much copper’s benefit was left after both metals slid late in the quarter.
