NAB drops A$4 billion after Judo credit update rattles business lenders

NAB drops A$4 billion after Judo credit update rattles business lenders

June 25, 2026

SYDNEY, June 26, 2026, 02:04 AEST

  • NAB ended down 3.35% at A$37.45, the worst performer out of Australia’s big four banks.
  • The drop wiped out roughly A$4 billion in market value on higher-than-normal volume.
  • Judo issued a credit warning as NAB’s business survey put confidence at -19.

National Australia Bank Limited (ASX:NAB) slid to A$37.45 at the close on Thursday, dropping A$1.30. Trading volume hit 8.43 million shares, running 23% above its usual turnover. The decline wiped out around A$4.0 billion in market cap, putting NAB 24% under its 52-week peak. Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX:CBA) dropped 1.27%, Westpac Banking Corp (ASX:WBC) was off 2.01%, and ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX:ANZ) shed 2.19%.

S&P/ASX 200 (INDEXASX:XJO) lost 0.68% at 8,748.70. NAB slipped 2.67 percentage points more than the index and underperformed its big-bank average by around 1.5 points.

Selling hit after Judo Capital Holdings Ltd (ASX:JDO) warned on its outlook. The small-business lender plunged 40.3%, wiping out about A$660 million in market value. Retail banks dropped too, as investors took the statement as more than a Judo issue and dumped business credit exposed stocks.

Judo is looking at fiscal 2026 credit costs between A$116 million and A$122 million after three exposures went bad. The bank expects loans at least 90 days overdue or impaired will hit about 3% of its book by June 30. “Recent credit outcomes have been driven by a small number of customers,” Chief Executive Chris Bayliss said.

Judo’s loan book stands at A$14.4 billion, which is under 5% of NAB’s A$306 billion in business lending. NAB had about 22% market share for Australian business loans in March, with balances climbing 11.5% over 12 months. NAB’s business non-performing exposure ratio reached 2.03%, increasing from 1.66% in September 2024, and just below the 2.04% level seen six months prior. Judo and NAB calculate and report these figures differently and on different dates.

NAB’s latest quarterly survey sent more bearish signals for business. Confidence tumbled 13 points to -19 and conditions were down five to +2. Profitability tipped negative. Forward orders slipped into the red at -1, and firms cut planned capital spending by eight points. Capacity utilization hit the weakest mark since Q3 2021.

NAB’s biggest earnings came from business lending. Volumes climbed over 10% in the first half, with cash earnings from Business and Private Banking up 12.3% to A$1.85 billion. Credit impairment charges reached A$706 million for the group. About A$300 million of that was for possible losses linked to the Middle East conflict. “It’s very hard to forecast in these times,” Chief Executive Andrew Irvine said in May. Reuters

NAB’s economics chief Gareth Spence said earlier that weak confidence is still dragging on investment and hiring and is “will remain a key theme in the months ahead.” Nab

Marcin Frąckiewicz

Marcin Frąckiewicz is the CEO of TS2 Space and a longtime technology entrepreneur focused on telecommunications, satellite communications and digital innovation. A graduate of the Warsaw School of Economics (SGH), he writes about space technology, artificial intelligence and publicly traded technology companies. His analysis covers major market trends, emerging technologies and the businesses shaping the future of the global economy.

Stock Market Today

  • Scentre Group Shares Rise on Strong Volume Amid Management's Value Gap Concerns
    June 25, 2026, 4:09 PM EDT. Scentre Group (ASX:SCG) shares edged up 0.26% to A$3.86 on June 26, with trading volume 76% above average at 26.55 million shares, outperforming the S&P/ASX 200 index which fell 0.68%. The company's 2026 payout target offers a 4.77% yield, trading at 16.3 times funds from operations (FFO), with a payout ratio near 77.7%. Despite a solid 5% rise in business partner sales and specialty rents up 5.3%, management sees a value gap: the stock trades 12.3% below economic net asset value (NAV), pricing in only 21% of its management platform value. Scentre's hedging strategy has effectively mitigated interest rate risks, and partial asset sales highlight robust underlying property valuations.