New York, March 2, 2026, 16:13 (EST) — After-hours
- Walmart slipped roughly 0.6% Monday, but still outperformed the broader consumer staples sector.
- Inflation and interest rates were back on traders’ radar after a key U.S. cost measure climbed, while oil prices surged.
- March 3 brings retailer updates; then, on March 6, traders watch for U.S. jobs and retail-sales numbers.
Walmart (WMT) dropped roughly 0.6% to $127.24 on Monday, with investors weighing a surge in oil prices alongside new evidence of rising inflation. The S&P 500-tracking SPY managed a small uptick, but the consumer-staples ETF slid over 1%.
This shift is notable. Investors often look to Walmart as a reliable option when markets get shaky—a familiar spot for cash during growth jitters. But if inflation flares up again, the impact could go either direction. Shoppers might flock to bargains, yet sticky inflation could also mean persistently high borrowing costs and valuation headwinds.
That strain showed up in the latest snapshot of U.S. manufacturing. The Institute for Supply Management’s PMI stayed put at 52.4 for February, yet the “prices paid” index shot up to 70.5 — Reuters notes that’s the hottest reading since June 2022, flagging mounting input cost pressure. Oil moved up as much as 13% on Monday after U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran triggered reprisals from Tehran, fueling concerns over higher costs squeezing through the supply chain and muddying the Fed’s rate outlook. “Will raise some eyebrows at the Fed,” Capital Economics’ Thomas Ryan said of the price index. 1
Walmart feels the pinch from higher fuel costs fast—freight and delivery bills climb, regardless of its size or deals with suppliers. Tariffs, plus pricier metals, hit home goods and electronics too. Those categories? Shoppers usually notice price changes.
Investors are still wrestling with the question of what sectors can keep their footing if tech takes another sharp turn. “There continues to be this … back and forth” over the eventual winners and losers from AI, Kristina Hooper, chief market strategist at Man Group, said in a week-ahead note to Reuters. She pointed to Friday’s February jobs data, with markets bracing for a 60,000 gain, and a January retail sales print coming March 6. 2
Retail moves into focus now. Target announced plans to publish its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results before the bell on March 3, followed by a webcasted meeting with investors at 11:30 a.m. Eastern. These updates typically give a snapshot on promotions and demand—often used by investors to gauge Walmart’s performance, too. 3
Best Buy will report quarterly results on March 3 at 8:00 a.m. ET. The call is shaping up as another test for discretionary spending. 4
The short-term picture remains volatile. Persistently high oil coupled with rising input costs could squeeze retailers further, with consumers likely pulling back on anything beyond groceries and basics. Higher-rate expectations, if they stick, would crank up the pressure on the sector’s most richly valued stocks.
Up ahead, Target’s March 3 investor update comes first. A few days later, March 6 brings both the U.S. jobs report and fresh retail sales numbers — all key inputs into how rate bets line up, and whether the big-box chains can still flex pricing power as spring takes shape.
