MELBOURNE, June 26, 2026, 02:07 AEST
- BHP finished Thursday’s session at A$58.52, down 10.0% from where it closed on June 18.
- Roughly A$33.1 billion in market cap has been wiped out, almost 10 times the size of the Jansen charge.
- BHP dropped more than Rio Tinto and Fortescue.
- Port Hedland wage negotiations are set for July 7, six days after Brandon Craig takes over as CEO.
BHP Group Ltd ASX:BHP finished down 1.65% at A$58.52 on Thursday. The S&P/ASX 200 lost 0.68% to close at 8,748.70, with the materials sector dropping for a sixth session in a row. The Australian dollar was at 68.90 U.S. cents.
BHP shares are down 10.0% from the June 18 close of A$65.04. With 5.08 billion shares in issue, the drop wiped out about A$33.1 billion, or US$22.8 billion, at Thursday’s rate. That’s nearly 10 times the miner’s planned US$2.3 billion Jansen charge. The first 5.6% drop took place on 37.9 million shares, which is 3.6 times the usual volume. BHP slid another 4.7% by Thursday, this time on volume close to normal.
The broad mining pullback only accounts for part of the drop. Rio Tinto Ltd ASX:RIO slid 7.4% from June 18 through Thursday, while Fortescue Ltd ASX:FMG dropped 5.2%. If BHP had tracked Rio’s move, its stock would be around A$60.26. Instead, it’s lagging by A$1.74, or about A$8.8 billion. That’s just an estimate, but points to investors hitting BHP for reasons beyond weaker commodity prices.
BHP bumped up its Jansen Stage 2 investment estimate to US$6.9 billion from US$4.9 billion, also moving first production back to late fiscal 2031. As of the end of May, the project was 16% built, with engineering at 83%. The company said its new internal rate of return is 11%, with a payback period of eight years. BHP stuck to its group capital spending outlook for fiscal 2027 at close to US$11 billion.
Barrenjoey’s Glyn Lawcock says “Capex increases are on everyone’s mind.” Elan Miller at Blackwattle Investment Partners told Reuters that “cost control is definitely a priority.” BHP’s “valuation premium positions them well to pursue M&A,” according to CLSA analyst Baden Moore. Craig is set to replace Mike Henry as CEO on July 1. Reuters
BHP posted US$15.5 billion in underlying EBITDA for the half-year to December. Net debt was at US$14.7 billion. The interim dividend came in at a 60% payout ratio. For shareholders, the main concern isn’t just the accounting charge. The question is how much cash projects like Jansen and BHP’s copper plans will burn before turning a profit.
Craig faces his first key test soon at Port Hedland. Unions could push for joint strike action if the July 7 wage talks stall. The port moves around A$150 million in iron ore daily from multiple producers. “BHP and Rio will continue to automate as much as possible” if strikes push wages up, said Morningstar analyst Jon Mills. Reuters
BHP (LON:BHP) shares in London ended up 0.8% at 3,074p Thursday. Copper prices added 2.1% to around US$6.07 per pound in late trading globally.
