PERTH, June 26, 2026, 04:07 (AWST)
- Pilbara Minerals (PLS:ASX) finished Thursday at A$5.38, wiping out around A$900 million in market cap. Trading volume was under 50% of its usual daily level.
- Shares have dropped 12.8% since the June 19 P2000 pre-FID approval, wiping out around A$2.5 billion in equity value.
- Battery-grade lithium carbonate prices in China have dropped to a 10-week low. Still, PLS is citing a long-run spodumene price forecast that’s twice as high as it was a year ago.
PLS Group Limited (ASX:PLS) dropped 4.95% Friday, far outpacing the S&P/ASX 200 index, which lost 0.68%. The index ended at 8,748.65.
Pilbara Minerals (PLS) shares have fallen from A$6.17 to A$5.38 after greenlighting A$175 million in early P2000 expansion spending. With 3.22 billion shares out, that’s wiped out about A$2.54 billion in market cap—roughly 14.5 times what the board signed off to spend.
Gap can’t be ignored. It’s not about the cheque amount, but about the market trying to price a project that is supposed to see first ore in mid-2029 after a sharp run-up in lithium. The materials index has dropped 9.8% in six sessions.
Materials stocks sold off Thursday after “two profit warnings and a renewed slide in key commodity prices,” IG market analyst Tony Sycamore wrote. He linked the sector move to a firmer U.S. dollar coming out of the Federal Reserve’s most recent meeting. IG
Lithium carbonate prices in China dropped to 157,000 yuan a tonne on Thursday, down 12.78% over the past month. The price serves as a sector indicator and doesn’t match PLS’s realised spodumene price. Traders are watching for clues about whether Contemporary Amperex Technology Co Ltd’s (SHE:300750) Jianxiawo mine will restart, but a government notice on land use did not confirm any production plans.
P2000 makes up around 12% of PLS’s A$1.455 billion in cash as of March and about 1% of the company’s present market cap. Of this, about A$100 million is set for plant buying and engineering. A final investment call is expected in the December quarter if funding, study work, and market factors line up.
Pilbara Minerals chief Dale Henderson said, “Any final investment decision for P2000 will only be taken where study outcomes, funding capacity and market conditions support.” If approved, P2000 would take Pilgangoora’s concentrate capacity up to around 2 million tonnes a year.
Pilbara Minerals Ltd (PLS) on June 23 said Benchmark Mineral Intelligence now sees long-run real SC6 spodumene prices at US$2,465 per tonne, up from US$1,235 in last year’s estimate. Benchmark is also calling for a 1.4-million-tonne lithium carbonate equivalent supply gap by 2040 in that same forecast.
Fastmarkets CEO Raju Daswani said, “The period of market overcorrection is over.” Fastmarkets sees lithium demand from battery storage climbing 40% a year. Albemarle (NYSE:ALB) commercial head Eric Norris said, “Grid storage is much more evenly distributed around the world.” Reuters
PLS said it shipped 232,400 tonnes in the March quarter, the most ever, bringing in an average price of US$1,867 per tonne. FOB unit cost dropped to A$520 a tonne. Cash climbed 52% from the previous quarter.
The stock is trading 21% under its A$6.81 high for the last year, still sitting more than four times over the A$1.22 low. On Thursday, 16.21 million shares changed hands, about 43% of the usual daily volume. The drop came with light volume, suggesting the sharp price move didn’t match turnover.
PLS said mining in FY27 will need around 50% more material moved compared to FY26, driven by a capitalised cutback. The P2000 feasibility study is still expected in the December quarter.
