LONDON, July 3, 2026, 11:02 BST
- London Stock Exchange kept its usual 8:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. BST hours. Glencore plc (LON:GLEN) traded up 0.61% at 513.90p at 11:01 BST.
- RBC Capital Markets stuck with its Outperform rating and 600p price target. That suggests about 16.8% upside from Friday’s close.
- RBC estimates coal makes up around 30% of Glencore’s EBITDA and sees first-half EBITDA at $9.8 billion, a touch under the $10.0 billion consensus.
Glencore plc (LON:GLEN) gained on Friday with the FTSE 100 down. The stock traded 0.61% up at 513.90p as of 11:01 BST; the FTSE 100 dropped 0.32% to 10,618.48 at about the same time. London Stock Exchange trading ran as usual.
The live quote feed made the comparison obvious:
| Company/index | Google Finance ticker | Price/index level | One-day move | Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glencore plc | LON:GLEN | 513.90p | up 0.61% | 11:01 BST |
| Rio Tinto plc | LON:RIO | 7,092.00p | up 0.16% | 11:02 BST |
| Anglo American plc | LON:AAL | 3,772.00p | up 0.83% | 11:01 BST |
| Antofagasta plc | LON:ANTO | 3,862.00p | up 0.26% | 10:59 BST |
| FTSE 100 | INDEXFTSE:UKX | 10,618.48 | down 0.32% | 10:43 BST |
Google Finance supplied the quotes at the listed times.
RBC Capital Markets held its Outperform on Glencore, sticking to a 600p target ahead of the July 29 production update. Glencore last traded at 513.90p, so the target is 86.10p higher, or a 16.8% premium. RBC said the story is now about Glencore’s earnings durability rather than cheapness on valuation.
RBC’s coal reset is based on realised thermal coal prices from Richards Bay in the first half. The bank said coal, both thermal and steelmaking, accounts for about 30% of EBITDA. It sees first-half EBITDA at $9.8 billion and EPS at $0.23, compared to consensus of $10.0 billion and $0.27. RBC said its forecasts for average 2026-2028 EBITDA and EPS stay “largely unchanged.” Finimize
The iron ore angle is tough to ignore. Reuters Breakingviews wrote Friday that China is putting pressure on iron ore miners through state-backed CMRG. China takes about 70% of global seaborne iron ore. RBC likes Glencore’s low exposure to iron ore. That means Glencore faces less risk from a standoff with that buyer than its iron-ore-heavy rivals like Rio Tinto plc (LON:RIO) and BHP Group Ltd ASX:BHP.
Copper keeps moving. The London Metal Exchange’s three-month copper price, reported with a day’s delay, closed at $13,326 a tonne, up 0.21%. RBC said African copper gains made up for a small hit from Cerrejón. The July output numbers now have to match the price.
Glencore’s Q1 numbers break down the split:
| Line | Q1 2026 output | Year-on-year change | 2026 guidance | H2 share of guide |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Copper | 199.6 kt | up 19% | 810-870 kt | 52% |
| Zinc | 176.9 kt | down 17% | 700-740 kt | 50% |
| Nickel | 17.2 kt | down 9% | 70-80 kt | 50% |
| Steelmaking coal | 6.5 mt | down 22% | 30-34 mt | 56% |
| Energy coal | 22.9 mt | down 2% | 95-100 mt | 54% |
Glencore’s new production report contains the company’s Q1 numbers and its 2026 outlook.
Glencore chief executive Gary Nagle said in the April report that full-year 2026 production guidance is still in place. Nagle added that if commodity prices stay strong, marketing EBIT could land “comfortably exceeding the top end” of its usual range.
The quotes come into focus after Friday’s price jump. With the target gap now at 16.8%, a new reprice will need volume in the second half or some portfolio change. RBC pointed to either a coal spinoff or copper asset sales as options. Glencore’s July 1 notice so far just lists reporting dates.
Glencore plans to publish its half-year production report on July 29 at 0700 UK time. The company will follow with half-year results at 0700 on Aug. 5 and an 0800 webcast. That gives the market under four weeks to test RBC’s coal and copper thesis.
The focus isn’t the headline copper price. It’s about whether copper can stick to that 52% second-half weighting, and if coal rebounds after steelmaking coal dropped 22% in Q1. If not, that miss could impact the same earnings bridge that has RBC holding at 600p.
