BAT stock lags FTSE as AI cuts face dividend question

BAT stock lags FTSE as AI cuts face dividend question

July 4, 2026

LONDON, July 4, 2026, 18:05 BST

  • British American Tobacco p.l.c. dropped 2.7% to 4,621p last week. The London Stock Exchange was closed on Saturday.
  • BAT’s £600 million savings a year is about 5.3% of what it expects to make in adjusted profit from operations in 2025. It’s just 0.6% of AJ Bell’s current market value, according to the latest number.
  • The key date coming up is July 9, when LSE goes ex-dividend for a 61.26p quarterly payout, which is about 1.3% of Friday’s close.

British American Tobacco p.l.c. finished the week down despite bouncing mid-week. The market saw its AI-driven cost cuts as a move to protect guidance, not a reason to push the shares higher. The London Stock Exchange was closed Saturday. The stock last changed hands Friday at 4,621p, off 13p, or 0.28%. Volume was 1.04 million.

The stock slipped 2.7% since last Friday’s close at 4,751p. Shares saw the biggest one-day drop on Wednesday, not on Monday after job cuts were announced. The market didn’t dismiss the cost-cutting plan, but shares moved lower through the week.

DateCloseDaily moveVolume
Jun. 264,751p4.08 mln
Jun. 294,717p-0.7%3.58 mln
Jun. 304,677p-0.8%5.61 mln
Jul. 14,536p-3.0%2.94 mln
Jul. 24,634p+2.2%2.91 mln
Jul. 34,621p-0.3%1.04 mln

BAT said Monday it plans to cut about 5,500 jobs and shift another 3,500 positions over to outside firms like Accenture plc . The move impacts roughly 9,000 roles in all, though the U.S. is not included. The company expects the shakeup to bring in £600 million in annual savings by 2028, aiming for £500 million by 2027.

Chief Executive Tadeu Marroco said BAT’s moves will make it “more agile, cost-disciplined and technology-enabled.” He said the company is working to support staff hit by the cuts with “care and respect.” Chris Beckett, analyst at BAT investor Quilter Cheviot, told Reuters the stock reaction probably shows concern BAT might “need more drastic action” to meet its medium-term goals. Reuters

The cost cuts are real, but they won’t move the needle for the BAT equity story. BAT’s 2025 adjusted operating profit, backing out Canada, was £11.28 billion. The £600 million savings target for 2028 is around 5.3% of that. On AJ Bell’s £93.65 billion market cap, the saving is just 0.6%.

BAT stuck to its 2026 outlook, leaving guidance at the bottom of its medium-term targets: revenue up 3%-5%, adjusted profit from operations up 4%-6%, and adjusted diluted EPS up 5%-8%. The company lifted its New Categories revenue growth target to the mid-teens, but also now sees global cigarette industry volume falling about 2.5%, a steeper drop from its previous 2% estimate.

Derren Nathan, head of equity research at Hargreaves Lansdown, said in a note that New Category sales were improving, but the combustible business faced more challenges. He said BAT would have to deliver a stronger second half “just to hit this year’s modest guidance”. Hargreaves Lansdown

BAT is still beating the FTSE 100 on relative returns. AJ Bell data put BAT ahead of the index for one-month, three-month, one-year and year-to-date trailing performance, despite Friday’s lower finish.

Trailing return to Jul. 3BATFTSE 100
1 day-0.28%+0.25%
1 monthup 4.98%up 3.49%
3 monthsup 4.86%up 3.21%
1 yearup 36.04%up 24.90%
Year to dateup 11.11%up 9.48%

BAT closed Friday 13.2% under its 52-week high at 5,326p and 31.7% above the 52-week low of 3,508p, according to AJ Bell’s numbers. The stock showed a 5.43% dividend yield and a P/E of 12.74.

Income moves into focus this week as BAT announced a 245.04p dividend for 2025, with four quarterly payouts of 61.26p each. The second payment for 2026 goes ex-div on the LSE July 9, record date is July 10, and the payment date is Aug. 14.

The 61.26p ex-dividend cuts about 1.3% off Friday’s 4,621p close, wiping out nearly half of last week’s 130p drop. The shares are still ahead of the FTSE 100 over most trailing periods. Now investors will look to the July 30 half-year earnings, watching whether the £600 million cost savings target will lift confidence for hitting the lower end of guidance, or just signal that cigarette profits are still carrying the load.

Mateusz Ługowik

Mateusz Ługowik is a senior markets reporter at Bez-kabli.pl, specializing in technology stocks, artificial intelligence and global financial markets. A graduate of the University of Gdańsk, he previously worked in investment research and market analysis. His coverage helps readers understand the key trends, companies and innovations influencing investors worldwide.

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