easyJet (LON:EZJ) is facing a £700 million takeover-spread test before the market opens Monday.
- easyJet plc (LON:EZJ) closed Friday at 558.20p, slightly under Castlelake’s original 560p bid and 14.1% under the investor’s 650p fourth offer, which the board turned down.
- The 91.8p difference to 650p works out to roughly £696 million in equity, based on Castlelake’s £4.93 billion bid in its fourth attempt, according to Reuters.
- Castlelake has until 5 p.m. London time on Sunday to make a bid or drop out, unless both sides agree to push the deadline again.
- easyJet plans to report Q3’26 results on July 23.
easyJet plc (LON:EZJ) starts the week with its deal spread now wider than its total decline over the past week. Shares finished Friday at 558.20p, nearly flat on the day, down 4.3% from last week’s close, daily price data shows. The stock touched 544.60p during Friday’s session, falling below Castlelake’s initial 560p bid.
It comes down to the weekend. Castlelake faces a 5 p.m. London deadline on Sunday to make a firm offer or walk away, unless the UK Takeover Panel okays more time. easyJet turned down Castlelake’s 650p per share cash offer but did hand over some limited commercial data.
| Price marker | Pence per share | Gap from Friday close | Equity value gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Friday close | 558.20p | — | — |
| Castlelake first proposal | 560p | +0.3% | about £14 mln |
| Castlelake fourth proposal | 650p | +16.4% | about £696 mln |
| Reported shareholder ask | 700p | +25.4% | about £1.07 bln |
Estimate based on the £4.93 billion value tied to Castlelake’s 650p bid. Reuters cited the Financial Times reporting easyJet and shareholders wanted a minimum of 700p per share.
A rough deal-arb math puts the share price in the middle here. If you take 394p—the pre-Castlelake disclosure mark from Reuters—as the break price, Friday’s close suggests about a 64% chance of a 650p offer, assuming a drop back to 394p if the deal falls through. That’s straight arithmetic, not a call on the outcome. It takes no view on a higher bid, lower break price, or another extension.
Barclays analyst Andrew Lobbenberg called the drop a “modest reduction” in the implied odds of a deal. He also pointed to broker downgrades and some profit-taking as possible reasons, with traders wary if the deal doesn’t happen. Reuters
The peer tape traded soft, though not everything pointed to deal risk.
| Company | Google Finance ticker | Jun. 26 close | Jul. 3 close | Five-session move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| easyJet plc | LON:EZJ | 583.00p | 558.20p | -4.3% |
| International Consolidated Airlines Group SA | LON:IAG | 482.70p | 477.50p | -1.1% |
| Jet2 plc | LON:JET2 | 1,351.00p | 1,291.00p | -4.4% |
| Wizz Air Holdings plc | LON:WIZZ | 1,227.0p | 1,200.0p | -2.2% |
All closing prices are pulled from daily historic tables covering the four airline stocks listed in London.
The table goes both ways. easyJet dropped about as much this week as Jet2, so the selloff wasn’t just about Castlelake. Still, easyJet is the only one of the four with a live bid and a share price under the opening offer.
The buyer faces a structure issue too. easyJet said Castlelake’s vehicle would be split—49% with Castlelake and co-investors like Brookfield Asset Management Ltd., while 51% would go to EU nationals, including Peter Bellew and Mark Breen. The board said this fourth proposal still left questions about the ownership setup, whether it could be delivered, and how long it would take to meet conditions.
easyJet’s stand-alone numbers are a mixed bag, so the debate goes on. The airline posted a first-half headline pre-tax loss of £552 million, up from £394 million last year. But passenger numbers grew 6% and load factor hit 90%, up two points. CEO Kenton Jarvis said easyJet is “well placed to manage the current environment.”
| easyJet H1 FY26 measure | Result | Why investors care |
|---|---|---|
| Group revenue | £3.95 bln | Rose 12% from a year ago |
| Headline loss before tax | £552 mln | Winter loss got bigger |
| Load factor | 90% | Improved by 2 points |
| Net cash | £434 mln | Backs up board’s value stance |
| H2 airline bookings sold | 58% | Dropped 2 points year on year |
| H2 fuel hedged | 72% at $726/MT | A $100/MT swing shifts fuel bill about £35 mln |
The week gets going before the bell. A full bid at 650p still falls short of the rumored 700p mark. If talks break down, the old 394p price before bid interest returns. Another extension means focus returns to deal structure, funding, and if the easyJet Q3 on July 23 tips things toward Castlelake or the board.
