NEW YORK, July 5, 2026, 09:02 EDT
- Spot gold was quoted near $4,174.10 late Friday, up 1.27%; spot silver was near $62.270, up 2.36%.
- September Fed hike odds fell to roughly 54% from 66% after U.S. payrolls rose 57,000 in June, below a Reuters poll forecast of 110,000.
- JPMorgan Chase NYSE:JPM now sees gold at $4,300 an ounce in the third quarter and $4,500 in the fourth, down from its June 9 call for $6,000 by year-end.
U.S. metals futures had not begun the regular Sunday evening session at the article time after CME Group NASDAQ:CME listed an Independence Day schedule running across July 2-6. CME lists NYMEX and COMEX ClearPort hours as Sunday 5 p.m. to Friday 4 p.m. CT, with a daily reporting break.
Gold and silver held their post-payroll gains into the holiday weekend, but the cleaner investor signal was not the size of the bounce. It was where the bounce left prices against fresh bank targets. At late-Friday levels, gold was only about 3% below JPMorgan’s third-quarter forecast and less than 8% below its fourth-quarter forecast, while silver was already inside JPMorgan’s $60-$65 average range.
| Market gauge | Latest cited level | Investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Spot gold | $4,174.10/oz, +1.27% late Friday | About 3.0% below JPMorgan’s Q3 target |
| Spot silver | $62.270/oz, +2.36% late Friday | Already within JPMorgan’s $60-$65 silver range |
| September Fed hike odds | Roughly 54%, down from 66% before jobs data | The rally still needs lower rate pressure |
| June U.S. payrolls | +57,000; unemployment 4.2% | Soft enough to cut near-term hike bets |
| Brent / WTI | Brent near $72.02; WTI near $68.73 | Lower oil cut the energy-inflation scare |
The payroll report drove the repricing. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said nonfarm payrolls rose 57,000 in June and the unemployment rate was 4.2%. A Reuters poll had looked for 110,000 new jobs, and rate futures moved after the data.
“The lower-than-expected jobs number portends to less likelihood of potential rate hikes later this year,” David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures, told Reuters. He said gold tends to do better when rates are lower. Reuters
The rally had a ceiling because the Fed has not turned dovish. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said this week that anyone who thought the Fed would accept inflation above 2% would be disappointed: “We’re going to deliver price stability.” He also declined to give a clear signal on the next policy step. AP News
Oil helped metals by removing part of the inflation scare that had hurt bullion in June. Kitco said WTI traded near $68.73 a barrel and Brent near $72.02, while the 10-year Treasury yield held near the 4.5% area. That mix left gold driven more by the dollar and rates than by fresh panic demand.
JPMorgan’s reset matters because it cuts into the easy upside story. The bank said demand from key sectors would be weaker than it expected, limiting gold to $4,300 in the third quarter and $4,500 in the fourth. It said risks to the forecast skewed lower if U.S. data pushed the Fed toward earlier hikes.
| Metal | Recent spot reference | JPMorgan forecast | Gap from reference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | $4,174.10/oz | $4,300 Q3 | +3.0% |
| Gold | $4,174.10/oz | $4,500 Q4 | +7.8% |
| Silver | $62.270/oz | $60-$65 average | Inside band |
| Platinum | $1,634.30/oz early Friday | $1,800 end-2026 | +10.1% |
| Palladium | $1,270.25/oz early Friday | $1,350 end-2026 | +6.3% |
Central-bank demand still gives gold a second leg. The World Gold Council said official gold reserves rose by a net 41 tonnes in May, led by Poland at 18 tonnes and China at 10 tonnes. Its 2026 survey found 89% of central bankers expected global gold reserves to rise over the next 12 months, and 45% expected their own institution’s reserves to rise.
For investors, silver now looks like the higher-beta trade and the thinner cushion. It beat gold on Friday, but JPMorgan’s range puts it close to fair value unless the Fed-hike trade fades further. Gold has more room against the bank’s fourth-quarter target, but not much if September odds move back toward the pre-jobs 66% level.
