London, July 6, 2026, 17:09 BST
- National Grid ended the session off 1.05% at 1,231p. FTSE 100 lost 0.26%.
- Its five-year investment plan totals £70 billion, topping the £61.25 billion market cap as of the close.
- Guidance from the company suggests FY27 underlying EPS should land around 88.1p to 89.7p, which gives the stock a forward P/E of roughly 13.7 to 14.0 times.
National Grid plc (LON:NG) dropped more than the FTSE 100 on Monday, trading at 1,231p at 16:35 BST, off 1.05%. The FTSE 100 (INDEXFTSE:UKX) finished down 0.26%, Hargreaves Lansdown data show, after the session ended.
The bigger issue for investors isn’t Thursday’s drop. National Grid has a £70 billion capital plan for the next five years, which is about 114% of the company’s £61.25 billion market cap, based on Hargreaves Lansdown data. That level keeps the stock exposed to funding and execution risk, even after management raised its earnings outlook.
Numbers below are from Hargreaves Lansdown market cap data, National Grid FY2026 guidance, and the most recent delayed price. Calculations use those figures.
| Measure | Latest/base | Forecast or implied value | Investor read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Share price | 1,231p, off 1.05% | Trailed FTSE 100 by 0.79 point | Stock didn’t hold up as a defensive |
| Market value | £61.25 bln | £70 bln capex plan is roughly 114% of market cap | All about execution and what’s allowed on returns |
| FY2026 underlying EPS | 78.0p | FY2027 EPS could come in around 88.1p-89.7p if targets are met | EPS seen jumping in near term |
| Forward P/E from Monday price | — | About 13.7x-14.0x on FY2027 numbers | No clear AI premium in the multiple |
| Five-year EPS plan | 78.0p base | EPS CAGR seen at 8%-10% to FY2031 | Execution, capex delivery and regulator will drive outcome |
National Grid put in £11.6 billion of capital investment for the year to March 31, a new record and up 18%. Underlying EPS came in at 78.0p, up 8% in constant currency. CEO Zoë Yujnovich said it’s the “largest investment programme in our history,” with the company looking to spend at least £70 billion over five years. Investegate
Debt is still weighing on the share price. Hargreaves Lansdown’s Aarin Chiekrie said net debt climbed 7% to £44.2 billion in FY2026, and it’s set to go up more than £6 billion next year. Big spending means “plenty of execution risk,” he wrote. HL
Morningstar NASDAQ:MORN analyst Tancrede Fulop stuck to his 1,440p fair value on National Grid after the latest results, saying the group’s retained cash flow to net debt ratio stayed “comfortably above” Moody’s Baa2 level. Fulop said he still saw “limited likelihood” of a rights issue, which some bears expect, even with more 2027 investment and rising net debt. Morningstar
Joulent brings fresh exposure for National Grid. The company said July 1 it will put $1.75 billion into the U.S. power platform for a 35% stake, targeting big data centers and AI customers. Yujnovich described it as a “disciplined, partner-led investment.” PR Newswire
Reuters said Joulent’s first project is Kilby, a 2.67 GW gas plant in West Texas with Chevron NYSE:CVX. It will supply a Microsoft data center through a 20-year PPA. National Grid plans a final investment decision by late 2026 and targets free cash flow for Joulent in the early 2030s.
| Area | Forecast or plan | Timing | Risk investors are pricing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Core regulated plan | Capex of at least £70 bln | FY2027 to FY2031 | Debt, supply chain, regulatory delivery risks |
| FY2027 earnings | Expecting 13%-15% growth in underlying EPS | Year ending March 2027 | Allowed revenue has to cover higher finance costs |
| Joulent | $1.75 bln outlay for a 35% stake | FID likely 2026 | Higher returns, but also more risk versus regulated networks |
| UK grid demand backdrop | Britain needs about £89 bln in grid upgrades across the 2030s | Mid-2030s demand could rise over 30% | Political and bill worries over network costs |
UK grid costs are climbing. Reuters said last week National Energy System Operator now puts the tab for grid investment at about £89 billion through the 2030s. That’s up roughly 53% versus the 2024 plan, with demand seen rising over 30% by the middle of the next decade.
National Grid’s next investor events are its AGM for 2026 on July 14 and the 2025/26 final dividend payout set for July 23, the company’s calendar shows.
