London, July 6, 2026, 22:01 BST
- SEGRO finished at 869.4p/869.8p after London markets closed, dropping 1.14%. The FTSE 100 ended down 0.3% at 10,651.8.
- Prologis’s proposed 0.084-share offer, which got turned down, was worth roughly 880p on Monday. That’s based on Prologis’s share price of $140.20 and GBP/USD around $1.339.
- UBS Asset Management reported a 1.74% stake in SEGRO, saying it held no shorts or derivatives. The firm also reported a small sale at £8.80.
- Analyst consensus before the offer had SEGRO’s 2026 adjusted NAV at 959p per share, topping the initial 925p headline bid.
SEGRO plc (LON:SGRO) ended Monday as more of a speculative takeover trade, without the usual takeover premium. Hargreaves Lansdown showed the shares at 869.4p/869.8p after the London session, off 1.14%. Reuters reported the FTSE 100 slipped 0.3%.
Based on Prologis Inc NYSE:PLD’s $140.20 share price in New York, GBP/USD close to $1.339 and a 0.084 exchange ratio, the rejected offer worked out to about 880p for each SEGRO share. That’s just about 1.1% over SEGRO’s midpoint on Monday. Back on June 24, when Prologis was at $145.30 and GBP/USD traded at $1.32, the same math got you 925p.
This matters since the trade depends on whether a higher bid is coming, not the previous 25% premium. SEGRO’s board points to NAV and its pipeline. Prologis is pushing its scale, its shares, and its access to capital. On Monday’s prices, the market priced it close to the on-offer exchange ratio.
| Reference mark | Value | Gap to SEGRO Monday midpoint |
|---|---|---|
| SEGRO Monday sell/buy midpoint | 869.6p | — |
| Current implied value of 0.084 Prologis shares | about 880p | +1.1% |
| June 24 proposal value | 925p | +6.4% |
| SEGRO 2026E adjusted NAV consensus | 959p | +10.3% |
| Reuters Breakingviews unadjusted income-model value | 1,113p | +28.0% |
UBS Asset Management reported holding 23.5 million SEGRO shares, a 1.74% stake, with no shorts or derivatives, according to new takeover-code filings. UBS said it sold 14,818 shares at £8.80, which is just 0.06% of its position. Its stake was about seven times SEGRO’s reported trading volume Monday of 3.3 million shares.
SEGRO’s board has pushed the focus back on asset value. In a June 30 statement, the company said Prologis’s offer was worth 881p per share at that point, down 5% since talks started. Chairman Andy Harrison accused Prologis of trying to get SEGRO “on the cheap”. Investegate
Analysts see arguments on both sides. Oli Creasey, property research head at Quilter Cheviot, told Reuters Prologis “would be reluctant to increase the offer materially” beyond NAV. Bjorn Zietsman at Panmure Liberum questioned if the bid “adequately compensates shareholders” for potential growth and asset value. Reuters
SEGRO’s consensus file, gathered March 30 to April 9 and before Prologis made its move, already showed adjusted NAV ahead of the June headline bid. SEGRO says it took an average of analyst estimates as consensus and hasn’t checked the individual numbers.
| SEGRO consensus metric | 2025A | 2026E average | 2027E average | 2028E average | 2026E range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | 36.6p | 38.5p | 40.2p | 42.1p | 37.3p to 39.7p |
| Adjusted NAV per share | 925p | 959p | 1,005p | 1,054p | 930p to 989p |
SEGRO stressed the operating case goes beyond the consensus table. Back in April, SEGRO reported new headline rent for the first quarter at £23 million, with £12 million from development lettings. The company said UK rent reviews, renewals and regears resulted in a 38% uplift, while occupancy was 94.8%. The pipeline—projects under construction or at advanced negotiation—could deliver £73 million of rent at a 7.6% development yield. CEO David Sleath called it “a strong start to 2026”. SEGRO
Reuters Breakingviews ran the numbers bigger on Monday, using Panmure Liberum forecasts that see net rental income up to about £729 million from £675 million last year. It tacked on £218 million from logistics, £416 million from data centres, plus £50 million a year in cost synergies, for a total of about £1.4 billion in annual income once everything’s built. On its base model, that equals 1,113p a share. Cut £1.5 billion for risk, and the value comes out near £13.7 billion, roughly 8% over the current offer.
The wider UK listing is key in any cross-border property play. David Morrison, senior market analyst at Trade Nation, told Reuters U.S. and Chinese buyers are still eyeing UK assets. As for SEGRO, deadlines are tight: Prologis has to decide by 1700 London time on July 22 whether to launch a firm offer, and SEGRO posts half-year numbers on July 30 at 0700 GMT.
