London, July 6, 2026, 22:01 BST
- Admiral Group plc (LON:ADM) finished down 1.85% at 3,598p, a bigger drop than the FTSE 100 Index (INDEXFTSE:UKX).
- The stock is up 13.3% for the year, but the average sell-side target is now under where shares finished on Monday.
- UK motor prices are moving up again, but with fresh repair-cost numbers, the margin question is still up in the air ahead of results on Aug. 6.
Admiral Group plc (LON:ADM) dropped 1.85% to 3,598p on Monday. The FTSE 100 Index (INDEXFTSE:UKX) was down 0.26% at 10,651.77. Despite the steeper move, Admiral is still up 13.29% for 2026 and 2.10% in the last five days, according to MarketScreener.
Investors are watching the gap between Admiral’s share price and broker targets, not just the single-day drop. MarketScreener’s consensus has the 12-month target at 33.84 pounds from 14 analysts, with the average call at “hold.” The sector’s typical target gap is +8.72%, but Admiral’s sits below its target. MarketScreener
Two consensus pages for public targets showed this range. The gaps listed use Monday’s close at 3,598p for comparison.
| Forecast source | Analyst base | Target measure | Target | Gap to 3,598p close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MarketScreener | 14 analysts | Average | 3,384p | -5.9% |
| Investors Chronicle/LSEG | 13 analysts | Median | 3,550p | -1.3% |
| Investors Chronicle/LSEG | 13 analysts | High | 3,800p | +5.6% |
| Investors Chronicle/LSEG | 13 analysts | Low | 2,350p | -34.7% |
Investors Chronicle and LSEG data listed 2 buys, 4 outperform, 4 hold, 2 sell, and 1 strong-sell calls as of July 2. Shares traded between 2,350p and 3,800p in the past 12 months, with a 3,550p median.
Admiral’s guidance for 2025 is backing the latest rerating. In March, the company posted £957.9 million in profit before tax from continuing operations, plus EPS of 247.4p and a 205.0p dividend. Chief Executive Milena Mondini de Focatiis said, “UK Motor delivered an exceptional performance, surpassing £1 billion of profit.” Admiral Group Plc
Newer numbers for the sector are murkier. The latest Confused.com price index, which uses WTW data, showed the average comprehensive car insurance quote at 719 pounds, 8 pounds higher than three months ago. It’s the first uptick since late 2023. Quotes are still down 38 pounds from the same time last year, according to the same index.
ABI said first-quarter data showed average premiums at 560 pounds, up 1 pound from Q4. Insurers paid out 2.9 billion pounds in claims, with 1.9 billion going to vehicle repairs. Average accidental damage claims hit 3,699 pounds, up 8% on the quarter. Chris Bose, ABI’s director of general insurance and international, said “repair costs continue to be a concern.” ABI
That’s the timing risk for Admiral. Rising premiums are good for new business, but old cheaper policies are still running through the book while claims costs stay up and price hikes come in slowly.
RBC Capital Markets analyst Ben Cohen downgraded Admiral to sector perform on June 19. London South East said RBC lowered its price target to 3,450p from 3,560p, trimmed its UK motor profit outlook for FY26 by 5%, and now sees group FY26 profit dropping 8% from the year before, steeper than the previous forecast for a 2% dip.
| Investor debate for Aug. 6 | Latest figure | Forecast read-through |
|---|---|---|
| Average target | 3,384p | Down 5.9% from Monday close |
| RBC target | 3,450p | Down 4.1% from Monday close |
| RBC FY26 group profit view | Down 8% year over year | Worse than earlier minus 2% call |
| Average accidental damage claim | £3,699 | Cost pressure stays high |
Admiral has a smaller growth play outside its main retail motor business. The company wrapped up its £80 million purchase of Flock on June 1, giving it access to a telemetry-based fleet insurance platform. Flock CEO Ed Leon Klinger said joining Admiral would help push its safety mission out to a bigger slice of the UK motor market.
Rachel Lewis took over as group CFO July 1, stepping in as Geraint Jones shifted to a part-time position. Admiral said Lewis has been with the group for about 20 years and served as CFO of UK Insurance.
