LONDON, July 7, 2026, 11:08 BST
- Glencore plc LON:GLEN traded at 513.50p as of 10:53 BST, down 0.5% from its last close. The FTSE 100 was stronger.
- Congo doesn’t see a big risk to copper or cobalt production from tight acid supply, though cobalt export quotas are still a concern.
- Shares are down 27% from the June 3 peak, with July’s production data now set to test the copper and coal rebound trade.
Glencore plc LON:GLEN slipped on Tuesday, bucking a rise in London’s blue-chip index. Shares made only a minor move, but investors are wrestling with whether Congo cobalt regulation and Glencore’s weighted production schedule can keep the shares up after hitting a high in June.
Glencore was last seen at 513.50p as of 10:53 BST, down from its prior close at 516.00p. The London Stock Exchange is open from 8:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. BST. The FTSE 100 was up 0.45% on Reuters’ delayed feed.
Glencore is trading 27.39% under its 52-week high of 707.20p from June 3. The selloff puts the group’s market cap near 60.39 billion pounds. Still, shares bounced back hard from the August 2025 low of 275.20p.
Copper is up, but the market focus has shifted to Glencore and whether it can actually hit the second-half targets it’s set. CEO Gary Nagle said back in April that first-quarter output lined up with what the company had expected, and he left full-year 2026 production guidance steady.
The midpoint calculation is simple. Glencore’s guidance points to a heavier back half in copper and coal, especially steelmaking coal, which has to jump sharply from the Q1 run rate. Company midpoints and first-quarter production figures follow below.
| Commodity | Q1 2026 output | 2026 guide midpoint | H2 share in guide | Implied H2 quarterly average | H2 average vs Q1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Copper | 199.6 kt | 840 kt | 52% | 218.4 kt | up 9% |
| Steelmaking coal | 6.5 mt | 32 mt | 56% | 9.0 mt | up 38% |
| Energy coal | 22.9 mt | 97.5 mt | 54% | 26.3 mt | up 15% |
Glencore said its copper mix for the second half hinges on Collahuasi, with the company expecting better access to primary ore and desalinated water there. Steelmaking coal will be heavier in H2, with Canada pit sequencing and a longwall shift at Oaky Creek driving the timing. As for energy coal, output is set by Ulan, Bulga and Cerrejón.
Congo’s message to investors is mixed. Grace Mabaya, a senior official at the Mines Ministry, told Reuters they “have not observed any major impact” on national output from issues with mining-input supplies. Congo shipped a record 823,887 metric tons of copper in the first quarter, up 4.8% on the year. Cobalt hydroxide exports climbed 24.5% to 51,940 tons. Reuters reported Glencore was a key player in those shipments. Reuters
The cobalt problem is still hanging around. Reuters said last week that a customs platform glitch in Congo risked blocking first-half export quotas. Producers in the country had a July 5 deadline to use their allocations. One industry source told Reuters that up to 20,000 metric tons of cobalt shipments, equal to $1.1 billion at the prices then, could be lost if the snag wasn’t sorted. Congo is capping annual cobalt exports at 96,600 tons for both 2026 and 2027.
For Glencore, this is mainly a timing and cash flow issue rather than a simple volume loss. The company says the DRC cobalt quotas run at least through the end of 2027. Cobalt mined above quota at KCC and Mutanda gets stored in the DRC and sold when possible. Glencore expects a cobalt export allocation of 22.8 kt for 2026, including any 2025 carryover, and 18.8 kt for 2027.
Copper is showing its own support line. Trading Economics quoted copper at $6.19 a pound on July 7, gaining 0.13% for the day and 9.59% for the past year. The firm forecasts copper at $6.35 for the quarter end and $6.96 in 12 months. Westmetall’s numbers put the LME three-month copper contract at $13,370 per ton on July 6, inching up from $13,345 on July 3.
| Market measure | Latest quoted level | Forecast / comparison | Investor read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Glencore shares | 513.50p | 27.39% off the June 3 high | Recovery trade ran out of steam |
| Stockopedia analyst consensus | 510.80p at last close | Target is 629.40p, or 23.22% above last close | Brokers still see a bounce |
| Trading Economics GLEN model | 514.10p | Model sees 503.33p at quarter end; 473.73p in a year | Macro model leans bearish |
| Copper CFD | $6.19/lb | Forecast: $6.35 at quarter end; $6.96 in 12 months | Copper deck is still a tailwind |
The trade is in the gap between the analyst target and the macro model. Stockopedia’s consensus target has the shares higher from the last close. But the Trading Economics model sees the price dropping below today’s mark by year-end.
Glencore plans to publish its 2026 half-year production report on July 29, with the release set for 7:00 a.m. UK time. The company is set to report half-year results on August 5.
