SYDNEY, July 8, 2026, 23:04 AEST
- National Australia Bank ASX:NAB last traded at A$39.59, pricing above a number of broker targets.
- NAB raised around A$1.8 billion in new Common Equity Tier 1 capital from share issues tied to its DRP, priced at A$37.04.
- NAB’s Ada data platform has a cost goal. The bank wants to cut run costs by 15% after shutting down custom Spark jobs.
National Australia Bank ASX:NAB has climbed enough post-capital raising that broker targets are now mostly flat. Next up: can a lower-cost data setup and extra capital buffer against margin and credit risks. Shares last traded at A$39.59 on July 8, up 0.94%, logging a 4.57% gain in five days, but still down 6.43% in 2024, according to MarketScreener. Trading was outside normal ASX cash hours of 09:59:45 to 16:00 Sydney by the dateline.
Market prices are outpacing current target screens. Motley Fool Australia, citing Market Index data on Tuesday, said the average target sits at A$39.17, while TradingView lists A$37.78, with most recommendations at hold or sell. Investing.com’s average is A$37.959 from 14 analysts, consensus neutral.
| Broker or market screen | Latest figure | Implied move vs A$39.59 |
|---|---|---|
| MarketScreener last price | A$39.59; up 0.94% on July 8 | — |
| Market Index average target from Motley Fool | A$39.17 | -1.1% |
| TradingView average target from Motley Fool | A$37.78 | -4.6% |
| Investing.com average target | A$37.959 | -4.1% |
The range hasn’t narrowed much. Investing.com lists a high estimate at A$47.50 and a low at A$29.00. With shares at A$39.59, that’s 20.0% upside to the high mark, 26.7% downside to the low.
NAB’s capital numbers make the bull story. The bank on July 2 issued 22,948,164 new fully paid shares at A$37.04 through a DRP underwriting. That raised roughly A$1.8 billion in new CET1, split as A$850 million from the underwriting and A$958 million from DRP holders. Another A$20 million went to Bonus Share Plan holders.
NAB had already flagged the capital raise in April, saying at the time that a 1.5% DRP discount and a partial underwrite would likely boost its CET1 ratio by about 40 basis points in the second half. In the same update, NAB said it expected first-half 2026 credit impairment charges at A$706 million, with A$300 million of that in forward-looking provisions. NAB will also take a pretax software amortisation hit of A$1.347 billion, or A$949 million after tax, due to changes in software policy.
| Item | Disclosed figure | Market read |
|---|---|---|
| Underwritten DRP shares | 22.948 million at A$37.04 | Shares trade at A$39.59, or 6.9% over the offer price |
| New CET1 capital | About A$1.8 billion | Extra capital after recent credit and market losses |
| CET1 benefit expected | Up to about 40 bps | Direct CET1 boost |
| 1H26 credit impairment charge | A$706 million | Ongoing credit cost risk in valuation |
| Software amortisation charge | A$1.347 billion pretax | Hits earnings, but CET1 unaffected |
| Annual investment spend expected | About A$1.8 billion | Cost control keeps its place in the story |
NAB’s fresh fixed-income deals are listed in the Simply Wall St report, which runs next to its equity capital coverage. The report said NAB wrapped up HK$2.50 billion in 3.669% senior unsecured notes maturing June 2029 and US$30 million in callable zero-coupon notes maturing June 2046 under Reg S. Both notes provide term funding, while the DRP boosts common equity.
Ada is the less obvious part here. iTnews said NAB is rolling out Spark Declarative Pipelines across more than 1,600 of its data pipelines. Dheeraj Puli, who heads data reliability engineering, said new silver-layer pipelines are being put on SDP and that there are already 3,800 silver pipelines running on SDP at NAB. iTnews cited a Databricks case study, saying work at the silver layer was about half finished.
Puli gave a number for the cost target, saying, “We expect 15 percent lower run cost” when custom Spark jobs are shut off and only SDP jobs remain. The target looks small compared to NAB’s A$1.8 billion a year technology-investment spend, but run cost is one operating expense investors will see again after the software accounting reset. iTnews
Brokers are still cautious. Fairmont Equities’ Michael Gable flagged margin pressure and credit risk. Motley Fool reported he also questioned the stock’s competitive edge. Mark Gardner at MPC Markets was negative on near-term earnings. Catapult Wealth’s Dylan Evans said budget tweaks and household pressure from higher rates are headwinds. All three rated the stock a sell.
CEO Andrew Irvine said after the May numbers that the bank stuck to a “prudent approach” on its balance sheet. “It’s very hard to forecast in these times,” he said. Reuters
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