SYDNEY, June 29, 2026, 03:19 AEST
- The S&P/ASX 200 (INDEXASX:XJO) finished Friday up 15.50 points, gaining 0.18% to 8,764.20. The index still dropped 0.73% this week.
- Resources stocks in focus for swing trades. Materials just snapped a six-day, 9.8% slide. Energy fell 12% in 10 sessions since June 11.
- RBA minutes land Tuesday. Headline CPI eased to 4.0% in May, though trimmed mean inflation moved up to 3.6%.
- China PMI, housing approvals and trade numbers are set to hit miners, banks and stocks tied to housing this week.
Australian shares are set to reopen later on Monday, but the cash market in Sydney hasn’t opened yet. The ASX trades normally between 09:59:45 and 16:00:00 Sydney time.
The S&P/ASX 200 (INDEXASX:XJO) starts the week just 4.8% off its February high of 9,202.90, but losses last week hit sectors with exposure to China, oil, and local rate moves. On Friday, the index was at 8,764.20, according to Trading Economics—up 0.53% for the month, and 2.94% over the past year.
Friday’s bounce wasn’t enough to fix the week’s drop. The ASX daily wrap showed the main index up 0.18%, trading on average volumes. There were 88 gainers and 95 stocks that fell.
BHP Group Ltd ASX:BHP climbed 0.80% on Friday, with Rio Tinto Ltd ASX:RIO up 2.15% and Fortescue Ltd ASX:FMG up 0.69%. Those gains came as the materials index opened about 1.2% higher, according to Market Index, snapping back after a six-day slide that sent the sector down 9.8%. Energy stocks moved higher too after sliding 12% in 10 straight sessions.
| Test for the week ahead | Latest reading | Stocks with biggest exposure |
|---|---|---|
| Rates | Cash rate holds at 4.35%. RBA to release June minutes on June 30 at 11:30 a.m. AEST. | Commonwealth Bank of Australia ASX:CBA, Westpac Banking Corp ASX:WBC, National Australia Bank Ltd ASX:NAB, ANZ Group Holdings Ltd ASX:ANZ |
| Inflation | Headline CPI comes in at 4.0%. Trimmed mean is 3.6%. Housing rose 6.5%. | Scentre Group ASX:SCG, Wesfarmers ASX:WES, and JB Hi-Fi ASX:JBH |
| China demand | The official manufacturing PMI for China came in at 50.0 in May. June numbers are expected June 30. | BHP, Rio Tinto and Fortescue |
| Oil prices | Brent crude closed at $71.99 Friday, losing 10.86% over the week | Woodside Energy Group Ltd ASX:WDS, Santos Ltd ASX:STO |
Interest rates remain the biggest local risk for stocks. The Reserve Bank of Australia left the cash rate unchanged at 4.35% on June 16 after hiking it three times this year. Governor Michele Bullock said the moves were “tough for households” but necessary to cool demand. Reserve Bank of Australia
Markets are watching Tuesday’s minutes since the inflation breakdown looked worse under the surface. ABS head of prices statistics Rachael McCririck said annual CPI hit 4.0% in May compared to 4.2% in April, but the trimmed mean inflation picked up to 3.6%. Electricity prices jumped 21.1% from a year ago, with rebates falling out of the base.
Economists are divided on if it’s enough for another rate hike. NAB’s Sally Auld said the case for raising rates “isn’t as compelling,” while AMP’s Shane Oliver said the RBA will be worried by rising food costs. The Guardian
Banks stayed under pressure. Commonwealth Bank finished at A$162.02, off 0.42%. Westpac ticked up 0.23%. NAB edged 0.16% higher and ANZ was up 0.52% at the close.
China data is in focus. The National Bureau of Statistics said manufacturing PMI was 50.0 in May, slipping 0.3 from April. New orders came in at 49.9. Tuesday’s June PMI will be a key read for iron ore stocks.
Oil has been a mixed story. Lower Brent prices can take pressure off fuel inflation, but they hit energy companies’ revenues. Reuters said Brent dropped 4.34% to $71.99 a barrel on Friday and was down 10.86% for the week as more ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz.
Wall Street didn’t help local tech stocks. The S&P 500 edged down 0.05% on Friday, with the Nasdaq down 0.24%. The Nasdaq dropped 4.7% for the week as chip names sold off. That’s more pressure on WiseTech Global Ltd ASX:WTC, Xero Ltd ASX:XRO and Technology One Ltd ASX:TNE after the ASX tech sector struggled last week.
The week opens with an RBA speech set for 9:30 a.m. AEST Monday, followed by the June board minutes dropping Tuesday. ABS data on May building approvals comes out 11:30 a.m. AEST Wednesday, and May goods trade numbers hit at the same time Thursday.
