Sydney, March 4, 2026, 16:57 (AEDT) — Activity after hours.
- ANZ dropped 3.7% to finish at A$37.94, lagging behind the wider market.
- Australia’s GDP release put May rate hikes back in play, with war-fueled oil volatility fanning fresh inflation concerns.
- Eyes are turning to the RBA’s March policy meeting, with ANZ’s interim report due in May also drawing attention.
ANZ Group Holdings (ANZ.AX) slumped 3.7% to A$37.94 on Wednesday, marking the sharpest decline among major Australian banks as investors pulled back from the sector. Shares are now trading roughly 7% under their 12-month peak, with ANZ’s interim report on the calendar for May 7. 1
Fresh economic figures and a volatile energy scene sent investors scrambling to recalculate rates. Australia’s GDP grew 0.8% for the December quarter and 2.6% over the year—marking the strongest annual growth in almost three years, even though the quarterly figure landed below forecasts, Reuters reported. “Today’s data will keep the RBA on high alert,” said Stephen Smith, partner at Deloitte Access Economics. IG’s Tony Sycamore flagged higher household savings, with “cost-of-living pressures still biting.” 2
It was a rough session for the broader market. The S&P/ASX 200 slid 1.9%—its sharpest drop since February. Every sector ended in the red, investors on edge over the prospect of a protracted Middle East conflict, surging oil, and the inflation ripple effect. 3
Commonwealth Bank of Australia dropped 1.2% and Westpac was down 1.6%, while National Australia Bank shed 2.0% for the day, according to delayed pricing. Losses weren’t quite as deep as ANZ’s, but other big banks headed lower too. 4
Jitters spilled across borders. Asian stocks took a sharp hit, with investors bailing on risk. The worry: a broader Middle East conflict might spark an oil supply crisis, locking in stubborn inflation and forcing central banks to keep rates elevated. 5
Bank stocks have struggled all week, pressured by war news and energy price swings working their way into valuations. “The ASX is reflecting a classic geopolitical risk premium,” said Marc Jocum, senior product and investment strategist at Global X ETFs, in comments to Reuters on Monday. He singled out banks and cyclical names as underperformers, with energy and gold shares pulling ahead. Cliff Man, CEO of ETF Shares, flagged that all the uncertainty can sap business sentiment and weigh on credit appetite. 6
For lenders, it’s a complicated picture. Margins might get a boost from higher rates, sure, but if oil pushes households and businesses to tighten their belts, borrowing could slump. That’s not all—bad-debt risk, which usually shows up after a delay, can creep in as those pressures build.
Thursday, the focus splits: crude’s price action on one side, offshore equity cues on the other. If oil’s rally falters or even just steadies, the tone could flip fast.
Traders turn their focus to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s March 16–17 meeting, scanning for any signals about a possible move in May. 7
For now, ANZ’s share price is basically dancing to two tunes: where rates are headed, and whether this jump in geopolitical risk just fizzles out or ends up locking in higher inflation for good.
