Sydney, March 14, 2026, 05:07 AEDT
Australia’s benchmark S&P/ASX 200 ended slightly lower on Friday as miners slid and Northern Star Resources tumbled on an output warning, while oil-driven inflation fears hardened bets on another Reserve Bank of Australia rate rise next week. The index closed down 11.90 points, or 0.14%, at 8,617.10. 1
The move matters because the pressure is no longer confined to one sector. Global stocks fell on Friday, Brent crude held around $101.47 a barrel, and the ASX 200 is now down 6.3% so far in March, on course for its worst month since September 2022, as markets price roughly an 80% chance of a 25 basis-point, or 0.25 percentage-point, RBA increase on March 17. 2
Under the surface, the session was less one-way than the benchmark implied. ASX’s daily wrap showed 98 gainers against 90 decliners, while Reuters said financials rose 1% and miners fell 2.1%; Kai Chen, a director at MPC Markets, called it a “consolidation phase,” and Marc Jocum at Global X ETFs said higher rates help banks only if “households keep borrowing and arrears remain contained.” 3
Northern Star was the day’s clearest casualty. The gold miner slumped 18.8% after warning it may struggle to reach the lower end of its fiscal 2026 production guidance. 4
The strain is spreading into transport as well. Qantas said on Friday it would pay A$105 million to settle a class action over COVID-era flight credits, while Qantas and rival Virgin Australia have each lost a little over 13% in March as jet fuel costs surged; Reuters separately reported Qantas had already lifted fares to protect margins despite being more than 80% hedged against crude for the half-year ending in June. 5
Canberra has already moved to cushion the hit. Energy Minister Chris Bowen said Australia would release up to 762 million litres of petrol and diesel from emergency reserves after shortages emerged in parts of regional Australia, equivalent to about 5 million barrels of oil. 6
Rate expectations are moving almost as fast as oil. All four big Australian banks now expect the cash rate to rise to 4.1% on Tuesday; Commonwealth Bank economist Belinda Allen said the “balance of probabilities has shifted,” while Deutsche Bank’s Phil O’Donaghoe said his “base case” is now for a move unless the conflict worsens further. 7
But the trade can still turn. RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser said there would be a “genuine” debate at Tuesday’s meeting because weaker spending and softer labour-cost data argue for caution even as higher oil threatens to lift inflation, so any retreat in crude or easing in the conflict could unwind rate bets and relieve pressure on miners, airlines and households. 8
