Sydney, March 14, 2026, 05:07 AEDT
The S&P/ASX 200 slipped 11.90 points, or 0.14%, to finish at 8,617.10 on Friday, pressured by losses in mining shares. Northern Star Resources was hit hard after flagging an output warning. Rising oil prices are fueling inflation concerns, firming speculation the Reserve Bank of Australia will hike rates next week.
This shift is notable: pressure has broadened beyond a single sector. Global equities slid Friday, Brent crude steadied near $101.47 per barrel, and the ASX 200 has dropped 6.3% in March. That puts the index on track for its worst monthly showing since September 2022, as traders now see about an 80% probability the RBA delivers a 25 basis-point hike—0.25 percentage point—on March 17.
The headline numbers didn’t tell the whole story. ASX’s daily wrap counted 98 stocks up, 90 down. Financials added 1%, according to Reuters, but miners slipped 2.1%. “Consolidation phase,” said Kai Chen at MPC Markets. Marc Jocum at Global X ETFs pointed out that higher rates are only a plus for banks if “households keep borrowing and arrears remain contained.” Australian Securities Exchange
Northern Star took the hardest hit. Shares in the gold miner tumbled 18.8% after it flagged possible trouble meeting even the bottom end of its 2026 production targets.
Pressure is hitting transport too. On Friday, Qantas agreed to a A$105 million payout, settling a class action linked to COVID-era flight credits. Both Qantas and Virgin Australia have slipped just over 13% so far this March, jet fuel prices providing the squeeze. Qantas, more than 80% hedged on crude for the half-year ending in June, has already bumped up fares to defend margins, according to Reuters.
Canberra is stepping in. Energy Minister Chris Bowen announced Australia will tap as much as 762 million litres of petrol and diesel from its emergency reserves—roughly 5 million barrels—after some regional areas reported shortages.
Rate bets are shifting rapidly, nearly keeping pace with oil’s swing. All four of Australia’s major banks now see the cash rate going up to 4.1% on Tuesday. Commonwealth Bank’s Belinda Allen said the “balance of probabilities has shifted.” Over at Deutsche Bank, Phil O’Donaghoe said his “base case” is for a hike—unless the conflict escalates beyond what’s already priced in. Reuters
Still, the trade isn’t set in stone. RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser flagged a “genuine” debate for Tuesday’s meeting, citing weaker spending and softer labour-cost numbers as reasons to tread carefully. Higher oil, though, keeps inflation risks alive. If crude prices drop or the conflict subsides, the market’s rate expectations could flip quickly—taking pressure off miners, airlines, and households. Reuters
