Tokyo, May 5, 2026, 23:07 JST
Wall Street opened higher on Tuesday, giving Japanese investors a partial reprieve after a sharp U.S. selloff driven by Middle East tensions and doubts over the next leg of the AI chip trade. The Dow rose 95.2 points at the open, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also advanced as oil prices eased.
The timing matters for Japan because its cash stock market is shut through Wednesday for Golden Week holidays, even as overseas news keeps moving prices. Japan Exchange Group lists May 5 and May 6 as market holidays, while Osaka Exchange derivatives trading remains open on those days.
That has put the focus on Nikkei 225 futures, contracts used to trade expectations for the index outside normal cash-market hours. TV Asahi said Nikkei futures, which ended night trading at 59,300 yen on May 2, briefly moved back above 60,000 on May 4 and stood at 59,550 at 6 a.m. Tuesday in Tokyo.
The U.S. move that started the reset was clear enough. The Dow fell 557 points, or 1.13%, on Monday to 48,941.90, while the S&P 500 lost 0.41% and the Nasdaq slipped 0.19%, after an explosion on a South Korean merchant ship in the Strait of Hormuz hit risk appetite.
The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow Gulf shipping route that normally carries oil and liquefied natural gas supply equal to about 20% of global demand. Brent crude eased 2.6% to $111.45 a barrel on Tuesday after a 5.8% jump on Monday, but Reuters reported that U.S.-Iran exchanges of fire kept the market volatile.
Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade, said a U.S.-escorted vessel leaving the Gulf showed “limited safe passage” was possible, but he added it was still “a one-off event” rather than a full reopening. Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova, said the drop in crude reflected temporary relief, not a real improvement in fundamentals. Reuters
Under the surface, the semiconductor trade remains the other big question for Tokyo. Monex Securities’ Takashi Hiroki told TV Asahi that Nvidia had not risen as much as other chip names in the latest rally, and said buying laggards indiscriminately is a pattern often seen near the end of a market phase; he said the AI semiconductor rally may be “eight or nine tenths” through its run. テレ朝NEWS
The counterargument is earnings. Reuters reported that 83% of S&P 500 companies that had reported results beat earnings-per-share estimates, while LSEG data showed first-quarter earnings growth was now projected above 18%, helped by AI spending. Jeff Buchbinder, chief equity strategist at LPL Financial, said AI-driven spending would likely keep doing “the heavy lifting” for S&P 500 profit growth, led by technology. Reuters
Investors will get another test from AMD, a key U.S. chip name due to report earnings Tuesday, according to Reuters’ Morning Bid column. The same note said markets were split between Gulf risk and upgraded forecasts for AI-related capital expenditure, or long-term corporate spending on data centers, chips and other assets.
Currency risk adds another layer for Japan. Reuters reported the dollar was up 0.3% at 157.73 yen on Tuesday after a brief yen jump to 155.69 on Monday, while Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama warned against speculative trading and traders stayed alert for possible intervention.
But the relief could fade quickly. A fresh disruption in Hormuz would keep energy prices high, lift inflation pressure and hurt companies exposed to fuel costs, while a stumble in AI spending or chip earnings would weaken the growth story that has carried much of the market.
For Tokyo, the next cash-session open will not just price one Wall Street close. It will price a holiday backlog: a 557-point Dow drop, a partial U.S. rebound, oil above $100, a shaky yen and a chip rally that no longer belongs only to Nvidia.
