Tokyo, May 5, 2026, 23:07 JST
Stocks on Wall Street started Tuesday in the green, a modest lift for Japanese investors reeling from the previous U.S. rout on Middle East worries and questions swirling around AI chip momentum. The Dow tacked on 95.2 points out of the gate. S&P 500 and Nasdaq headed higher too, with oil backing off recent highs.
Japan’s cash stock market is closed through Wednesday for Golden Week, leaving prices to shift on overseas headlines while domestic trading sits idle. Japan Exchange Group marks both May 5 and May 6 as holidays in its calendar, but derivatives on the Osaka Exchange will keep trading during those dates.
Nikkei 225 futures—widely watched for signals outside the regular trading day—have taken center stage. According to TV Asahi, the contracts wrapped up night trading at 59,300 yen on May 2, made a short-lived jump above 60,000 on May 4, and hovered at 59,550 in Tokyo as of 6 a.m. Tuesday.
It started with a jolt from the U.S.: The Dow dropped 557 points, down 1.13%, settling at 48,941.90 on Monday. The S&P 500 dipped 0.41%, and the Nasdaq eased 0.19%. Traders pulled back after news broke of an explosion on a South Korean merchant vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, souring risk appetite.
The Strait of Hormuz, a slender Gulf corridor, typically sees oil and LNG shipments representing roughly 20% of world demand. Brent crude slipped 2.6% to $111.45 a barrel on Tuesday, pulling back after Monday’s 5.8% surge. Reuters noted ongoing U.S.-Iran clashes have kept price swings sharp.
Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade, pointed out that a U.S.-escorted ship making it out of the Gulf signaled “limited safe passage” could happen, though in his view, it’s “a one-off event”—not an indication the route has truly reopened. Priyanka Sachdeva at Phillip Nova called the crude pullback a sign of short-lived relief, saying the fundamentals haven’t really changed. Reuters
Below the headline moves, chip stocks still hang over Tokyo. Takashi Hiroki at Monex Securities pointed out to TV Asahi that Nvidia actually trailed other semiconductor names in the recent surge. He sees a familiar late-stage dynamic: investors start scooping up laggards without much discrimination. Hiroki figures the AI semiconductor rally has already played out “eight or nine tenths” of its course. テレ朝NEWS
Earnings are the pushback here. Reuters noted that 83% of S&P 500 firms reporting so far have topped EPS estimates, and LSEG is now projecting first-quarter earnings growth over 18%—AI spending has played a big role. Jeff Buchbinder, chief equity strategist at LPL Financial, said technology—and AI-driven investment in particular—should continue to do “the heavy lifting” for S&P 500 profits. Reuters
AMD is set to report earnings Tuesday, a moment that could give investors new direction, Reuters’ Morning Bid column said. The note pointed out a split in the market: on one side, worries over Gulf risk; on the other, higher forecasts for AI-linked capital spending—think data centers, chips, and related infrastructure.
Currency swings are still front and center for Japan. On Tuesday, Reuters said the dollar gained 0.3% to reach 157.73 yen, snapping back after the yen’s sharp move up to 155.69 the day before. Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama issued a warning to speculators, and traders remain on edge for any signs of government action.
Still, any calm might not last. Another shock in the Strait of Hormuz would push energy prices higher, adding to inflation and squeezing firms sensitive to fuel costs. On the tech side, if AI budgets pull back or chipmakers post disappointing results, the market’s main growth narrative could take a hit.
Tokyo’s cash session returns with more than just a single Wall Street close to digest. Markets have a 557-point Dow slide, a partial rebound stateside, oil punching through $100, a wobbly yen, and a chip rally that’s outgrown Nvidia on the docket.
